A Study On The Spatial Decision-support Modeling Of Chongming Ecological Island Construction

This thesis addressed the meaning of Chongming Island ecological construction through interpreting the relative theories of ecological construction as well as objectives and significances of the island development,Further more,the concept of"island ecological carrying capacity"was presented by analyzing the island sustainable development,island eco-economy and island carrying capacity.An appropriate Spatial decision support model for the Chongming Island ecological construction was developed using Remote sensing technology,combined with GIS, System Dynamics method and spatial data mining technology in the basis of existing research results of ecological carrying capacity,ecological construction composite model and ecological risk assessment.The established model not only can be used in regional global decision-making,but also can be used in inner sub-regional decision-making which have the different location and development target.This paper's research results and research methods are useful for formulating the reasonable policy of the island spatial development.The results of related research are mainly showed in the following aspects:(1)The concept of"island ecological carrying capacity"was put forward.Based on the analysis of the related theories such as the sustainable development,ecological economy,ecological carrying capacity and ecological risk assessment,the connotation,target and significance of the ecological island construction has been forwarded and extension meanings of island sustainable development,eco-island economy and the island ecological carrying capacity were analyzed,further more, the ecological island carrying capacity was described systematically.(2)The improved the Space Synax has been applied for the spatial form analysis of Water system network.The concept of"arc"was introduced into Space Synax to improve its Space partition method according to the hydrological network. Meanwhile,through adding connectivity marking point,real status of hydrological network has been simulated and data specialization model has been developed based on the interpolation result of Chongming hydrological system map.(3)The ecological carrying capacity of forecasting methods was improved and spatial SD model was developed.Regional indicator-based SD simulation model was replaced by grid-based model.The land-use information simulated by CLUE-S model was used as an external judgement as well as input data to the improved SD model,and the initial grid assignment variables of the SD model were modified according to the grid attributes of land-use change,which attained to simulate the regional ecological carrying capacity change both in spatial and temporal scale.(4)Spatial Clustering Method has been applied for the spatial distribution of regional integrated ecological risk extraction and this trial has been proved more objective. Based on spatial forecasting of the indicators of ecological carrying capacity and homogeneity of spatial information and attribution information,WaveCluster was used for spatial cluster analysis about the Multi-dimensional factors of regional ecological risk and obtaining the temporal and spatial distribution of the regional ecological risk,which decrease the subjective of ecological risk evaluation(5)The improved SD model were used to simulated the develop respect under two development scenario models-the"economy-resources coordination"and"economic growth".and the results showed that:in the scenario of"economy-resources coordination",the ecological carrying capacity is superior than the"economic growth"mode which emphasize the growth of economic during 2006～2020.Former regional sustainable development capacity is more stronger and the regional population,economic indicators have shown to agglomeration to urban at the south side of the Yangtze River.(6)Ecological risk under the two regional development model showed that the higher integrated ecological risk,the lower sustainable capacity as well as low capacity of the environment and high natural disasters area.And high risk area under"economic growth"development mode is greater than"economy-resources coordination"development mode...