| Sciencally determined whether the activities of human society within the scope of the carrying capacity of ecosystems,which is a key of assessing regional sustainable development quantitatively. The study use the ecological footprint model and take the Chongming Island as research region,develop the ecological footprint model, ecological carrying capacity model and eco-system security assessment model. and based on t the historical evolution trend of he island ecological footprint, the island master plan was combined,conduct the predictive analysis of ecological carrying capacity in Chongming island. And the results are as following:(1) The aerospace remote sensing technology was used and the land cover / land use situation of Chongming Island was combined to divide the ecosystem of Chongming island into forest ecosystems, agricultural ecosystems, water ecosystems, wetlands ecosystems and urban ecological systems,so establish the ecological carrying capacity model is suitable for Chongming island.(2) The ecological carrying capacity model being suitable for Chongming island was established. It amended the traditional ecological footprint model of land-use types with the characteristics of the land resources into farmland, woodland, water, and built, the tidal wetlands, fossil energy land. Taking into account the wetland has the function of carbon fixation and alleviating greenhouse effect,so divided the fossil energy land into woodland and wetland.(3) Yield factors of all types of land in Chongming Island were dynamicly studied. According to the socio-economic statistical data and the global biological production data published by Food and Agriculture Organization in the calendar year and the Calculation Methodology for the National Footprint Accounts, 2008 Edition, calculate and analysis the calculate yield factors of all types of land in Chongming Island from 2001 to 2008. The results showed the productivity of farmland were above the world's average level. Yield factors of woodland were between 1.24 and 3.96, except in 2004 it was 0.98.Yield factors of water were all between 13.70 and 44.71, which were far above the world's average fishery level. Yield factors of wetlands were between 3.61 and 9.20.yield factors of built land were as same as farmland's.(4) Biological resources consumed by the Chongming island were comprehensively checked and analyzed. In addition to the primary product consumed, secondary products were included to calculate the ecological footprint. The results showed the total amount of ecological footprint in Chongming island in 2008 is 573627.17gha,and the per cap ecological footprint is 0.93gha.It is mainly fossil energy land, accounting for 61.23%, followed by arable land, accounting for 28.77 % of the total.(5) The results of ecological footprint in Chongming island are as following:①For the per capita ecological footprint and the amounts of ecological footprint, the per capita ecological footprint of Chongming Island between 2001 and 2008 has the overall upward trend, but fell slightly in 2002.②For the structure of ecological footprint,the proportion of farmland, woodland and water between 2001 and 2008 has the overall downward trend ,but upword on fossil energy land.③Million units of GDP from the view of Chongming Island is lower than Shanghai city,China④The per capita ecological carrying capacity from 2001 to 2008 is between 0.97 and 1.13 ha, varying marginally.⑤The eco-system of Chongming Island has the ecological reserve. The Ecological Reserve has the overall downward trend between 2001 and 2008,but The Ecological Reserve of Chongming Island reached a maximum in 2002.⑥For the security of eco-system, has the overall upward trend,but it fluctuated in 2002. The ecological footprint pressure index of Chongming island from 2001 to 2005 is between 0.5 and 0.8,the eco-system is safe. But the ecological footprint pressure index of Chongming island from 2006 is between ,it is critical state.(6) The forecast results of ecological footprint in Chongming island are as following:①With the "Three islands of Chongming Master Plan (2005-2020)" implemented, island-area ecosystem is still in the ecological reserve in 2010 and 2020.②The ecological footprint sightly increased in 2010 and 2020,it respectively increased by 0.03gha and 0.06gha compared with 2008,the composition of the ecological footprint is still mainly based on fossil energy land.③Because of the decrease in the area of arable land, the per capita ecological carrying capacity is 0.14gha in 2020 lsee than it in 2010.④The future of island eco-system security domain manifested in a critical state,the ecological footprint pressure index reached 0.96 in 2020.The forecast results showed the limitations of "Three islands of Chongming Master Plan (2005-2020)" ,and lead to constantly increase of ecological pressures. Therefore recommended that in the process of implementing the plan to be adjusted and ensure the ecological balance of the island.
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