| Along with the development of domestic economy and international trade, the marine traffic situation in many harbours and waters around the world has become more and more complex, with a mixture of the increment of ship numbers, tonnage, speed and great marine or offshore engineering. Consequently ship density in some main channels and seaways is increasing and marine accidents take place frequently. In order to implement safe and effective transportation by preventing and reducing marine accidents, researchers have studied the marine traffic system, extensively including human factors, ships and environment. After summarizing, concluding and analyzing the former research achievements, and based on the theories and methods of Cybernetics, Fussy Inference System, Neural Network and Computer Simulation, this paper studies the following: Marine traffic means the combination of individual ship movement or all ship's behaviors in certain waters. This paper divides quantitative study of marine traffic into four research fields, which are traffic status and traffic flow, ship behaviors, the statistic and analysis on traffic accidents, and traffic safety evaluation. Based on the analysis of achievements on quantitative study of marine traffic in 1990s, it is summarized that safety evaluation and ship behaviors are the main study direction in this field and simulation technology is adopted as study method. Marine traffic is a complex system, which involves in human, ships and the environment. Safety evaluation means the quantitative and qualitative estimation or assessment for the great system safety status. This paper presents the concepts of marine traffic environment and safety evaluation, summarizes the human, ships and environment's study status on quantitative evaluation of marine traffic. It also puts forward the general structure on a quantitative evaluation system of marine traffic safety. This is based on a summarized analysis of the former study. Based on the theories and methods of Cybernetics and Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), the FIS model on marine traffic safety evaluation is established, which respectively evaluates the maneuver danger degree on human, ship and traffic environment in marine traffic safety system, and finally makes comprehensive evaluation on marine traffic safety by considering the influence among three factors. The evaluation results generally conform to actual status. Based on the FIS model on marine traffic safety evaluation, the ANFIS (Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System) model on quantitative evaluation of marine traffic safety is founded, which could implement prompt calculation on marine traffic safety evaluation system and system integration. In order to evaluate the marine traffic environment more effectively and reproduce marine traffic status actually, the marine traffic simulation and its integrative safety evaluation system are developed by using computer simulation technology and Object-oriented Electronic Chart. This could take effect on finding the problem in marine traffic safety and make study in marine traffic evaluation more effective. According to the methods of vessel traffic engineering, marine traffic simulation evaluation system studies on the occurrence and development law of traffic flow, evaluates potential danger degree of marine traffic environment in current water, and forecasts the influence on marine traffic safety by the changes of environment. For example in Dalian port, marine traffic safety is evaluated integrally by using the evaluation model of marine traffic safety. The evaluation value of maneuver danger degree for traffic environment in Dalian port is 4.47, which indicates that the traffic environment in Dalian port is safe. When considering human, ship and environment, the evaluation value is 4.70, which show that the marine traffic condition in Dalian port is relatively safe and it conforms to actual condition. Even though marine traffic safety in Dalian port is generally good, how about...
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