Research On Macroscopical Evaluation Of Marine Traffic Safety In China

The thesis firstly analyzed the situation of marine traffic safety in China, and the existent problems, then there was a qualitative analysis of the influencing factors related to marine traffic safety. These factors were discussed from the view of microscopic and macrocoscopic. Based on the investigations and inquiries from relative authorities and expert, the evaluation index system of marine traffic safety evaluation was set up by applying the system engineering theory, then the evaluation model on marine traffic safety from 1985 was established, which was based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, analyzing and comparing the frequent-used ways of fixing on the weights of indexes, the weights of indexes were fixed on by the methods of Analytic Hierarchy Process and Complex Correlation .The index of marine traffic safety was calculated by use of the available datum.From social attribute of safety the thesis taked use of the Life expectancy index, Education index and GDP index as the macroscopical influencing factors, that was offered by UNDP from 1990.Finally the relationship between marine traffic safety and the influencing factors was investigated in detail by the improved grey correlation degree and the trend of marine traffic safety and the per capita GDP was analyzed.