Study On Decision Support System For Urban Intelligent Flood Control And Disaster Reduction

To solve a series of problems confronted in research field of urbanflood control and disaster reduction of our country, the theories andmethods of DSS for urban intelligent flood control and disaster reductionwere discussed by applying the theories and methods of modernmanagement science from the viewpoint of system analysis. Meanwhile,some problems in the system are studied thoroughly. The mainachievements are as follows: 1. In allusion to the characteristics of urban flood control anddisaster reduction decision, such as urgent decision-making time, theimperfection and uncertainty of information needed, the theoreticframework of DSS for urban intelligent flood control and disasterreduction is designed by using ES, ANN and GIS based on flood controland disaster deduction DSS. 2. The interactions among objects bearing flood disaster,inducing-flood factors and inducing-flood environment of urban flooddisaster system are analyzed. The formation mechanism of urban flooddisaster is studied and analyzed comprehensively and deeply aiming atthe complexity of urban flood formation. It can be concluded that thecycling and annual variations of climatic factors are the direct factorsleading to floods, the severe natural environmental deterioration resultingfrom human social-economic activities, however, is the dominating factorin urban flood increasing. 3. A new runoff forecasting model, based on the combination ofgenetic algorithm and neural network, is proposed, which integrate withthe strongpoint of genetic algorithm and neural network. The accuracyand the speed of runoff forecasting are effectively improved that offered anew method for solving runoff forecasting problem. 4. The technical principles and methods of GIS-based flood routingdynamic visual simulation for river, storage and detention basins areproposed. At the same time, the establishment process ofthree-dimensional visual models is analyzed, and the general framework and development pattern of the flood routing system for river, storage anddetention basins are designed. In the end the realization of functions ofthe system is also introduced in details. 5. The effect factors of urban flood loss are analyzed systematically,and the urban flood loss is classified from the point of view of urbansustainable development. The concepts of different urban flood lossfunctions are proposed, and the character of these functions is analyzed,in the end the forecasting models of different flood loss are established. 6. The factors affecting the decision-making and alternativeoptimum of urban flood control and disaster reduction are analyzed, onthe basis of this, the model of fuzzy optimum selection and neuralnetwork is applied in schemes optimization of urban flood-control anddisaster reduction, and the model of optimum schemes is established.