Study On Formation Mechanism Of Aviation Calamity And The Early Warning System

The conveyance by air is functionally one of the modern logistics and is also the effective means for the achievement of "the third profit source". It has become the important driving power for the development of national economy in modern society. However, the direct loss as well as the invisible harm caused by aviation calamity is shocking by the sight. The security situation of the civil aviation in China is far beyond being optimistic since there are lots of loopholes and hidden dangers in security.The objective of the thesis is to analyze formation mechanism of aviation calamity and to study the early warning system so as to prevent the emergence of accident-inducing elements and control the further development of them, to improve the aviation security management to be scientific and reliable, to decrease the rate of accidents and loss, and finally to promote the healthy and continuous development of the civil aviation. As the demand for the aviation security becomes higher with the rapid development of civil aviation and the need of system innovation, the practical significance of the thesis is obvious on the background of both the policy "Safety first as well as prevention" being carrying out and the challenge being faced after the China's entrance of WTO. With the theories & methods of early warning management, safety science, fault diagnoses and complexity science etc. being utilized, the thesis combines the front of several subjects and its methodology is valuable. It contains six parts.The first part introduces the origin of this study, the connotation and character of the aviation calamity, the study objective and its significance. A review of the literature concerning relevant theories and the study content and methods of the thesis is also includedNext, the demonstration study and statistic analysis on the actuality of the civil aviation safety management is presented. Aiming at Chinese civil aviationindustrial safety management, the actuality of airlines and airports safety management are studied through questionnaire and demonstration analysis and the status of china's air traffic control is analyzed after investigation. With the civil aviation accidents both worldwide and in China being statistically analyzed and compared, some common phenomenon are found out.The mechanism of the cause of aviation calamity is analyzed in the third part, in which the cause factors of calamity include the human factors, plane factors, facility factors, environment factors and organization management factors are included systematically. Considering effects of uncertainties, a model of Bayesian network is presented and first used for reasoning the causes of aviation calamity.In the following forth part, the principle of aviation calamity early warning system is discussed, which involve the basic theory, the operation model, the work methods of this system and the design principle of it.Then in the fifth part the operating mechanism of the aviation calamity early warning system is discussed, in which the organization formula of the system is put forward for the first time, including how to build the responsibility structure of early warning management, how to design the operation flow of early warning system and how to construct the supervising system early warning management etc.The contribution of the six part of the thesis presents the technical methods of the aviation early warning management system, in which the early warning index system of the aviation calamity is initially built up. The measurement of early warning index value using Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is demonstrated through an example and the model output of early warning signal is designed primarily. The early warning approach for Civil Aviation Flight Character Surveillance is discussed. The calculation result is that exponential smoothing is suitable to forecast the trend exceed the limits so as to find the early signs of civil aviation accidents or calamity. The early warning method of the plane failure diagnosis based on the ANN...