Study On Occurrence Mechanism And Early-warning Methods Of "Mistakes,Forgetfulness And Negligence" Events In ATM

With intensifying globalization of the world economy, the civil aviation transportationindustry, with its advantages of safety, quickness and high efficiency, plays a more and moreimportant role in society. As an important part of the civil aviation system, and the coresafeguard of the civil aviation flight safety, the Air Traffic Management (shortened as "ATM")system is responsible for effectively maintaining and promoting the air traffic safety andrunning order, ensuring smooth air traffic, and providing air traffic control, communications,navigation, surveillance, meteorology and aeronautical information services for the aircraft.Therefore, implementing early-warning management of the ATM system which can preventand correct occurrence and development of the unsafe events in ATM has very importantsignificance to ensure safe running of the ATM system, and sound and rapid development ofthe whole civil aviation industry.Based on the latest research fruits of early-warning management theory, according to alarge number of practice survey, the paper studied on occurrence mechanism andearly-warning methods of the“Mistakes, Forgetfulness and Negligence”events in ATM, withthe purpose of offering theoretical support and technical reference for ATM system toimplement early-warning management. Firstly, starting from the background and basis of thesubject selection, the paper summed up the research status in and out of China, defined theresearch purpose, significance, contents and methods, and elaborated the early-warningmanagement theory in detail. Secondly, on the basis of survey to the ATM units and teachingexperts in ATM, the paper analyzed survey results based on the Fault Tree Analysis model todetermine occurrence mechanism of the“Mistakes, Forgetfulness and Negligence”events inATM, extracted the early-warning indicators in the light of four classifications that humanfactors, equipment factors, environmental factors and management factors, and established theearly-warning indicator system of the“Mistakes, Forgetfulness and Negligence”events inATM. Finally, the paper used Analytic Hierarchy Process to set the weights of early-warningindicators, evaluated the system safety status based on the Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation model,predicted future development trend of the system safety status according to the Gray Prediction model. On the basis of evaluation and prediction results, the paper established theearly-warning signal diagram, and put forward the corresponding control measures andprocess of early-warning management.Following the principle that combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative research,complement of theoretical research and practical application, on the basis of lots of practicesurvey, the paper introduced the early-warning management theory to research of ATC safetymanagement, moved forward the port of ATC safety management, effectively prevented andcorrected occurrence and development of the“Mistakes, Forgetfulness and Negligence”events in ATM. This paper provides a new train of thought for ATM system to formulatecontrol measures and implement early-warning management, has very important theoreticalsignificance and practical application value.