Dynamic Simulation Evaluation About Water Resource System And Opimal Allocation Model Of Macro-economy Water Resource In Tong Liao City.

This paper is a part of national natural science fund research—《Dynamic Statistics Simulation and Structure Analysis about Parameter and Variable on the System of Hydrology,Water Resource and Water Environment》. The research area is Tong Liao City Inner Mongolia. Mostly content is evaluation about water resource,forecast analysis about macro-economy and macro-economy water resource optimized allot.. It apply water resource subject and macro-economy subject and accord with persistent development of water resource ,environment and social economy. Economy scope,way of using water resource,development layout about water conservancy,invest of water conservancy and balance between giving and demanding about water resource. 1. Dynamic simulation evaluation about connection between supply and drainage of water resource,ground water,surface water and useable water resource was finished. During evaluation of water resource, limited element dynamic simulation model was posted about aquiferous system on plain of Tong Liao City. The model system include dynamic calculate modes of rainfall seepage,evaporation ,regress of irrigation,seepage of farmland,seepage supply of channel and rainfall and so on. However, because of the dynamic property of input and output information and many parameters need to be identified, the solution to finite element simulation model becomes very difficult. So on the base of analysis of various parameters and curve accuracy or physical concepts, we fix part of the parameters firstly, and then initial value and interactive logical relationships of the rest parameters are determined according to their physical concept. Finally the parameters are identified through the finite element simulation model. By verification, the accuracy of determining and simulating parameters, the precision of finite element information, and the reliability of system calculation model about input and output information are all determined. At the same time, statistics character of parameter and variable and structure function was ascertained by the theory of variance about time and space. System parameter was estimated by the way of logarithm krining ,abroad krining ,cooperating krining. Especially it posted the way of cooperating krining of triangle element,logarithm krining,simple renovate logarithm krining,changeable average logarithm ordinary krining and logarithm krining with outside excursion. It finished evaluation and forecast of parameters about hydrology and waterpower of triangle element and every node and improved the precision of simulated evaluation about limited element model. 2. Based on analysis of dynamic variation character about population of Tong Liao City,situation social economy, the population of Tong Liao City was forecasted and analysed by dynamic forecasting model . Especially on the base of fact about every trade of Tong Liao City, the conducted equation was improved among some trades of Tong Liao City, and the MDAM was posted. So the dynamic forecasting of macro-economy of Tong Liao City at different years was carried out . It afford the economic datas for persistable exploitation and using water resource. 3. Based on optimizing the industrial structure, utilizing water resource efficiently and protecting ecological environment, multi-objectives analysis model of Tong Liao City in the optimal allocation of water resources of macro-economy is established, and function of analysis, prediction, optimization, simulation and management are realized. In addition, on the base of determining parametric variables systematically, we get the solution of model and analyze it, so as to indicate supplying and demanding prediction of water resources and reach coordinating development among economy, resource and environment. At last scheme on water resources sustainable development and water conservancy project planning are found.