Theory And Practice Of Holistic Simulation On Water Resources System

Water resources system is complex with various influential factors involved. The basic requirement for decision-making is to take different aspects into consideration. The needs to provide reasonable decision-support mechanism press for better methodology with realistic information availability. Currently, rapidly developing mathematical methods, information technology and other research findings in relevant fields offer the opportunities to improve the study in water-related issues. The effective and efficient way to construct holistic analysis tools for assessment and decision-making support about water is to establish comprehensive platform integrated of such state-of-the-art techniques. The theme of this paper is chosen to approach such goals.Holistic simulation is effective method to study complex large-scale system. This paper puts forward and enriches an integrated methodology to analyze the water resources system and provide assistance for decision-making. This methodology is problem-oriented and established on the preliminary theory of water system, and the major parts include design of simulation model and assessment techniques.Aiming at above goals, the related theories, techniques and applications about the simulation for water resources system are studied in this paper. There are ten charters.The theoretical studies consist of the 1st to 5th chapters. In this part, a multiplex framework of water resources system is presented based on the identification of the dual function of water resources on socio-economic development and environmental protection. The limitations of simulation technique are introduced according to general conception of system and corresponding analytical methods. Water resources allocation and reservoir operation are core for simulation of water resources system. Current situations of the research on those two fields are introduced and the existing problems are summarized. The advantages and disadvantages of two major techniques in this field - optimization and simulation are compared, and the principles to select methods for water allocation computation are concluded. Aiming at the complexity of water resources system, the principles on establishment of indicator system are discussed based on mutual relationship between main body and object in the water system. According to the natural and socio-economic characteristic of water resources, the multifold uncertainties are analyzed and the prospect of applying uncertainty theory in research about relation of water exploitation and socio-economic development. Through analysis of the major elements and processes in the water resources system, the framework of conceptual water resources system is presented.The technical studies consist of the 6th to 8th chapters. Based on the conceptual framework, the rule-based simulation method for water resources system is proposed. The rules are made up of three rules set: Basic Rule set, Conceptualization Rule set and Running Set. Based on the Running Set, the function in the framework is divided into separate but correlated modules with detailed description of running rules and water-balance restriction. In order to overcome the traditional difficulties of solving joint operation of reservoirs network, a self-adjusting rule-curve-conduct operation technique for reservoirs network (SAROT) is put forward and the concrete process is given. Combined with Object-Oriented Design (OOD), a Rule-based Object-Oriented Simulation Model of Water Resources System (ROWAS) is developed. To construct a powerful and convenient application system, the system architecture integrated of GIS, DB and ROW AS is discussed. An example of such integrated application system is briefly introduced. Regarding the assessment of simulation results, a improved AHP is developed by generating the judgement matrix with the value of understratum quatitative indices. Though this method, the weights of different indicators with preconcerted preference can be calculated and the consistence of this judgement matrix is proved. In addition, the fuzzy random variable of uncertainty theory and relevant computational methods are adopted to analyze the coexsisting dual uncertain attributes. By an example the reliability of analysis of water supply-demand balance is figured our by numerical simulation.The third part is applications of the achievement in the study. The first instance of the case studies is Haihe River Basin, the second one is Hainan Province. Through the application, the problems and respective analysis in the simulation process and results are discussed. Meanwhile, the concrete process of water supply-demand balance analysis and selection of suggested scenario in Hainan Province is given.Final part is the conclusion of the study. The disadvantage and improving direction are pointed out. Besides, the trend of the study in this field is pressurized.