The Theory And Method Of Water Resources Security

Water resources is the fundamental natural resources and strategic economic resources, being an important foundation for the sustainable development of the social economy and maintaining the ecological balance and elegant environment. As the basic assurance condition for the state survival and development, the issue of water resources security has become the center of our concern. Water resources security is an important part of the national security and important foundation for the national political security, economic security, social security, ecological security, environmental security, grain security, etc. The domestic and overseas study on this aspect started not long ago. Certain achievements have been made, but the study on the water resources security is still qualitative study more than quantitative study and related study more than direct study. In particular, there is different understanding on the meaning and economic attribute of water resources security. There is no systematic theory and method. In view of this, this article uses modern system theory, security theory, elasto-plastic theory, early warning theory and natural resources theory to carry out the study on the water resources security theory and method. The main content and results are as follows:(1)Starting from such basic concepts as security, security issue and security realization, study the water resources security and its nature.Utilize the principle of natural resources study, proposing for the first time from the viewpoint of philosophy that man is the principal of water resources security, water resources security describes the human security in the water resources system; the basis of water resources security is the healthy water cycle, and water cycle include natural water cycle and artificial water cycle.(2)Systematically present the basic theory and study content of the water resources security, establish the frame and system of the water resources security research, demonstrate that the water resources security is"principal security + water resources security", and indicate that the water resources security is not water security.(3)Utilize the modern system theory to carry out the condition study on the water resources security for the first time, proposing that the water resources security system has self-care, pertinence and public features; water resources security system has accumulation effect, being the result of common action by factors of regional influence on water resources security system, appearing as the time accumulation features and space accumulation features.Water resources security is a self-organized system, having the feature of sudden changes.(4)Starting from the core position and function of the"man"in the water resources security system, utilize the elasto-plastic theory, propose the elastic and plastic concept of water resources security, and establish the water resources security status change model based on the mode of"force and distortion", namely elastic status, elasto-plastic status, plastic limit status. Derivate the balance equation, consistency equation and constitutive equation of water resources security.And systematically descript water resources security mechanism from mathematics and mechanics angles.(5)Propose the assessment theory and method of water resources security. With the philosophy of ecological balance, security force balance, and movement balance of water resources security system, set up the assessment indicator system of water resources security. And establish the assessment model of water resource security based on the vague set theory.(6)Present the basic concept, operation mechanism and early warning method of the water resources security early warning, and design five security levels, giving their threshold limit so as to identify the status of water resources security.(7)Taking Shanxi,energy base of China,as an example, apply water resources security assessment and early warning model to its water resources security assessment and early warning. specify the water resources security level and threshold limit, and divide the security standard into five levels, i.e. good, secure, critical, insecure, and dangerous, with the corresponding alarm lights of blue light, green light, yellow light, orange light and red light. Make assessment and early warning on water resources security status in different cities of Shanxi Province. Aiming at the assessment results and appearing issues, propose corresponding guarantee measures and proposals, which provide theory and example for region water resources security assessment and early warning.