Method Research On The Early Warning Of Region Water Resources

Water is a scarce but essential resource to human life, social and economic development and eco-environment. With human population rapid growth and urbanization, the problems on lack of water resources and deterioration of water environment are standing out increasingly. China is a water-scarce country and will face more serious water scarcity with continued population growth and rapid economic development and urbanization. Water resources problem becomes one of key factors in our country's sustainable development of social ecological environment. Therefore, it is very necessary, and also urgent, to carry out comprehensive studies on region water resources early warning. The studies have extremely important significance for theories and great value in practice.After reviewing a lot of literatures home and overseas on the water resources early warning and according to the practice of water resources integrated management, this paper discusses the basic concept of the early warning of region water resources and analyses a series of basic theoretical problems such as the theoretical base, the logical process, the basic procedure, the rule of early warning. On the basis above, it forms the theoretical system of water resources early warning elementarily. By analyzing the uncertain factors of drought, this article discusses the evaluation and early warning problem of the regional drought and puts forward the forecasting system and builds up the early warning model of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation with the method of subjection degree in fuzzy mathematics. The early warning of water quality and the method of water-quality prediction are also introduced in the paper. In order to enhance the accuracy, single index assessment method and gray clustering method are adopted to give water-quality early warning. In this paper, the early warning of groundwater's excessive exploitation is discussed too. On the macroscopically management of water resources, the article builds up the forecasting index system of the sustainable utilization of region water resources. The weight of indexes is determined by applying analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the prediction of the indexes is calculated by BP neural network. The sustainable utilization of water resources is evaluated by model of comprehensive evaluation with utility function. Based on the foregoing research, this paper established corresponding measure of obviating the danger. Finally, the paper makes a demonstration taking Yancheng for example. The validating results indicate that the research method in this dissertation is reasonable and exercisable.Generally, a primary framework of region water resources early warning is founded and it is expected to further the future theoretical research and practical application. So it can provide important basis for the exploiture of water resources reasonably and scientifically. But there still exist some problems which are worth to be studied further.