Research On Early Warning System Of Water Resource Security Of Tianjin City

Applying relative theories in early warning and prediction, the author conducts research on early warning system of water resource security of Tianjin City, builds early warning model, and divides warning limit and warning degree.Firstly, concept of water resource security, as well as traits of water resource crisis and necessity of building early warning system of water resource security, is analyzed based on the consideration from other scholars about this issue. Then, on referencing construction principles in other early warning fields, the author proposes rules and methods of selecting indexes in early warning system of water resource security of Tianjin City. By way of analyzing problems faced by water resource system of Tianjin City and considering the water flow in water consumption system, the author takes water resource security degree as the first floor index, and selects indexes in other floors which are water resource quantity per capita, comprehensive water price, waste water treatment ratio, comprehensive water consumption per capita, sewage discharge capacity per capita, discharged volume of industrial waste water. After analyzing water consumption system, the author sees the first two indexes as control variable and the latter four ones as status variable of water resource system. Here, status variables are expression of water resource security level. Thus, the paper calculates weights of status variables with entropy method and obtains water resource security degree.Secondly, cusp catastrophe model is introduced into water resource system in the step of early warning analyzing. Taking water resource security degree as status variable, water resource quantity per capita and comprehensive water price as control variables, the author builds cusp catastrophe model of water resource system of Tianjin City, and analyzes water resource security level in the latest eight years of Tianjin City. Also, the paper analyzes problems existing in prediction with GM (1, 1)-weight Markov Chain, and gives improved measures. Then, the method is employed in prediction of major and minor control variables of water resource system, and the prediction of water resource security degree.Thirdly, discriminants of cusp catastrophe and water resource security degree are employed as basis in warning degree division of control and status variable warning degree respectively. The author divides warning degree of control variables according to discriminant values of Tianjin City, and divides the one of status variables through different level of water resource security degree which is calculated by alarm limits of status variables. Next, primary measures, which are related to various warning degree, are analyzed, and the future research direction is pointed out.Finally, the author gains development GIS block diagram of early warning system of water resource security of Tianjin City, and based on which, the paper developed program with ArcGIS Server plus VB.NET, and figures out problems to which we should be especially paid attention.