Research On The Robust Evaluation Method Of Operational Effectiveness Of Weapon Equipments And Its Supporting Techniques

With the increasing complexity and uncertainty of the modern information warfare, the higher requests are needed to demonstrate and develop the weapon equipments under this condition. Evaluating the operational effectiveness of weapon equipments (OEWE) is one of the core problems in the equipments demonstration and acquisition. And the results of operational effectiveness evaluation are regarded as an important criterion for the decision-making of the acquisition.And therefore, the evaluation process must be reliable and credible. Many uncertainties exist in the process of evaluating the OEWE, which bring many effects on the reliability and credibility of the evaluation results, and in turn, increase the possibility of misleading the decision-making process. In this dissertation, the problem on evaluation risk in the evaluation of the OEWE is put forth, and it is necessary to reduce the evaluation risk. Analysis on the general evaluation process shows that there are some difficulties in reducing and controlling the evaluation risk, which include: the lack of a reasonable and perfect indexes system; the lack of enough reliable evaluating data; the lack of the validate means to fuse the many different kinds of data resource; the lack of an effective mechanism to measure the risk evaluation and to reduce risk. Currently, with the traditional analytic evaluation method, expert evaluation method and simulation evaluation method, it is still very difficult to find an effective solution to the evaluation of the OEWE.The key to this problem is about how to reduce effectively the uncertainties from the evaluation process and get the reliable and credible evaluation results of operational effectiveness. And therefore, a new conception -robust evaluation is defined to meet the guiding idea for reducing evaluation risk. What is more, based on this conception, associating with the characters of evaluation of the OEWE, a robust evaluation methodology of the OEWE is put forward.The robust evaluation method focuses on how to get the reliable and credible results of the OEWE, the contents of which include:Based on the analysis of most of the operational effectiveness (OE) concepts, sum up and abstract their characters, and build a set of indexes system guiding mode on the OEWE and provide the method to get the detailed indexes system.To get reasonable and credible evaluation data, make a simulation data list as the data collection means, design the proper simulation structure and the experiment alternatives; to analyze the credibility of the simulation data, build a method to measure and verify the comprehensive credibility of the simulation data.Considering the robust evaluation requires enough evaluation data sources with high quality and quantity to support, and many sorts of the evaluation data sources such as simulation data, expert's preference data and the theoretical data are all required to evaluate the OEWE. And an evaluation method on the OEWE based on extensive Bayesian pattern fusion is put forward to solve this question.Focus on the difficulties of evaluation risk, build the framework of measuring and controlling the ER, based on the idea of meta-evaluation. Make a measurement model for the ER based on the evaluation resultsDesign and develop the robust evaluation system environment by means of adopting the software engineering United Model Language-UML. And realize most of the functions of the robust evaluation system in software.With robust evaluation system, carry out the evaluation of operational effectiveness on the armored weapon equipments, respectively, the armored equipment type and the other is the systems of system of the armored equipments.The innovations in this paper include: analyzing the problem from the evaluation on the OEWE, put forward the evaluation risk concept;in order to reduce the evaluation risk and to get the reliable and credible evaluation results, put forward the robust evaluation , and moreover, build up a robust evaluation methodology for the OEWE; to solve the difficulties in getting the needed and perfect indexes system of the OEWE, build a set of indexes system mode for the OEWE and provide the instantiate method to create detailed indexes; to solve the difficulties in collecting the reasonable evaluation data, make the simulation data list as the data collection mode, and build a method based on the D-S evidence theory to measure and verify the comprehensive credibility of the simulation data; aiming at the different sorts of evaluation data from multi-viewpoints which are difficult to fuse to evaluation the OE, put forward an evaluation method of the OEWE based on the belief map expression and the extensive Bayesian fusion method; Point to questions too difficult to measure and control the evaluation risk, build the framework of measuring and control the evaluation risk based on the idea of meta-evaluation. It is helpful to measue and control the evaluation risk.At last, adopting the robust evaluation system, make the evaluation of operational effectiveness for the armored equipments type and equipments of systems and system respectively. And the results show that the methods can reduce the risk and get more reliable evaluation results.The research on the robust evaluation in this dissertation can improve markedly the capability to support the weapon equipments demonstration. And it is a useful method which is worth researching and developing.