Air Defense Missile Weapon System Effectiveness Evaluation Research

Air defense missile weapon system effectiveness can fully reflect the weapon system's technical level and comprehensive combat capability;meanwhile,it is also an important reference for weapon system development and application.So,effectiveness evaluation has become one of the important research directions for the countries in the world.The thesis has clarified the scenarios and advantages of the effectiveness evaluation methods which are used frequently.Then,an effectiveness evaluation method is proposed based on ADC evaluation model,in which the improved analytic hierarchy process method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is core.In detail,firstly,two improved ranking methods for generalized fuzzy numbers are proposed and a new ranking method for Z-number based on them is shown.Then,the weight of capability index is calculated by the analytic hierarchy process method based on Z-number,and the comprehensive capability is evaluated by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the Z-number.At last,the weapon system effectiveness is gained according to the availability?dependability and comprehensive capability.The main research work was done shown as follows:(1)Firstly,the disadvantages and advantages of are shown after analyzing the effectiveness evaluation methods which used frequently;then,the complete air defense missile weapon index system has been constructed based on the predecessors' research work;at last,the mathematical models of availability? dependability and capacity are constructed after analysis of ADC model elements.(2)Two new ranking methods for generalized fuzzy numbers has been proposed,which can rank the generalized fuzzy numbers with the different left heights and right heights.Meanwhile,the two methods can overcome the drawbacks of existing methods and have obvious advantages in ranking the generalized fuzzy numbers which are symmetrical about Y-axis.(3)A ranking method for Z-numbers has been proposed.The ranking method has broken through the traditional method which converts Z-number into a standard generalized fuzzy numbers when ranking Z-number and keeps the original data information contained in the uncertainty situation as far as possible.(4)Use Z-number to improve the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The weight of capability index is calculated by the improved analytic hierarchy process method and the comprehensive capability is evaluated by the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.At last,a numerical example has been provided to illustrate the rationality of the method for evaluating weapon system effectiveness.