Research On The Simulation And Prediction Of The Runoff Changes And Water Resources Of The Luanhe Basin In Inner Mongolia

Water resource is very important to the humanity, it cannot be substituted, and also it is the essential factor of the ecological environment. Along with economy development, water resource has become the decisive factor to restrict the social economy development. Water resources system is a huge and non-linear dynamic system, the research content it involves is multitudinous, but the runoff simulation forecast is still in the positively exploring stage. This is also one of the hot and difficult study spots in this area. The Hoshan Ducker Sandy Area is one of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region ecology construction key areas, whether the water resources bearing capacity can supports the ecology construction need is one of key aspects in the success of ecology protection and construction.This paper is supported by the national natural sciences fund research project of"A study of Scientific Allocation of Water Resources for Vegetation Construction in The Sandy Area between Beijing and Inner Mongolia". In the foundation of the predecessor research , the author applies the geological statistics theory, the artificial intelligence theory, the MODFLOW model in the research of the runoff forcast of Luanhe River Inner Mongolia section and its groundwater resources seystem simulationThe main contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly, by using domain geology statistics theory, the time domain Ordinary Kriging; Universal Kriging; Cokriging forecasting models are established, the area annual flow forecast is realized, and the contrast analysis to the forecast result is carried on. Simultaneously, by using the genetic algorithm and the Neural Network Model based on the artificial intelligence technology, Shepard Interpolation Model, Projection Pursuit Model based on the RAGA, A-BP Neural Network ModeL and the Combination Forecasting Model also based on the RAGA are established, the runoff forecast is realized. After studying the dry season runoff statistical property of this area, the dry season runoff forecasting model is established. Secondly, the water resource amount of this area are evaluated, Using the convention assessment method to evaluate the regional surface water amount of resources, using the excretion mensuration method to evaluate the regional ground water amount of resources. Thirdly, the MODFLOW is used in the simulation of the ground water system in a sub-area.At the end of the papers, author summarizes the research contents and the achievements and discusses the problem existing in the study process.