Theory And Practice Of Water Resources Optimal Operation And Allocation In The Tao River Basin

The Tao River basin is a complex and multi-objective water resources system. It has great significance to research water resources problems in the Tao River basin for settlement of water scarcity and ecological environment deterioration and development of society and economy. On the basis of analyzing basin management experience at home and abroad, a series of problems are researched in this paper including change regular of runoff, analysis and evaluation of water resources carrying capability and optimal dispatching in the Tao River basin. The main achievements are as follows:(1) Based on ordering long hydro-sequence data and relevant data of the Tao River characteristics of rainfall and change regular of runoff are analyzed and inter monthly and inter annual change regular is given. Multi-annual mean runoff variation trend of the Tao River is gained by wavelet theory, Mann-Kendall method and five-point smooth average method. Power spectrum estimation is applied to research runoff periodic variation in the Tao River. Then grey topology model and system self-memory model are built to predict runoff variation in the future 20 years.(2) Carrying capability evaluation model of water resources is built by using extension theory and method. According to the faults of extension evaluation method, improved method of combining asymmetrical proximity principle and rough sets theory weights is proposed. Compared with traditional extension evaluation method, the deficiency that decision makers always rely on experts'experience is conquered and failure of maximum proximity is solved effectively. After the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capability has been established, pleasing results are obtained by applying the model to carrying capability evaluation of water resources in the Tao River basin.(3) 11 schemes under different situation of water resources optimal dispatching in the Tao River basin are set up and optimal dispatching model of cascade reservoirs is built. Methods are applied to solve model of optimal dispatching including dynamic planning, progressive optimal algorithm, particle swarm optimization algorithm and intelligent algorithm. Then application scope of different algorithm is given by calculating, analyzing and comparing to various solving methods. Meanwhile, in the light of imconvergent and local optimization in PSO, timely variation and inertia factor are put forward which makes better effects for application to power generation dispatching of cascades.(4) Comparison and optimization algorithm is adopted for schemes under different situation to proceed long series calculus and results of optimal dispatching under different situation are obtained. Set pair analysis theory is adopted to build evaluation indexes and model and proceed optimal selection to schemes.(5) RBF neural network method and decision tree algorithm in data mining technology are adopted to extract dispatching rules of cascade reservoirs in the Tao River. Functions of dispatching rules are established. Then simulation calculation and contrast analysis are made. Example shows that two methods above are reasonable and effective.(6) According to joint operation problem of cascade reservoirs in the Tao River, supported by models and methods provided in this paper, joint optimal dispatching system of cascade reservoirs in the Tao River is exploited. The system has the merits of functional completeness and amicable interface and provides technical support for manufacture and management.