Research On Safety Risk Relization And Evaluation Warning Problems At Airport

With national economic increase, air transport industry developed rapidly. Recently, many airports are getting busier and facing heavier support pressure. The designed support capacity of more than half national hub airports and major airports has reached or approached saturated state. In this case, due to the airports'software and hardware facilities can't meet the demand of air transportation's fast development, insecurity incidents and ground security accidents happened in the airport increase day by day. A series of studies show that many aviation accidents are related to the ground guarantee factor. As the main ground activity place of air transportation, airport with its safety support plays a very important role in the whole air transportation security system. So, how to improve the safety assurance ability, to identify, to forecast, to estimate and to early warn the security risks existing in the airport operation and support, as well as the emergency rescue to the accidents, are the main problems concerned by the airport administering authority.Based on the system engineering theory of taking airport as a complicated giant system, this article comprehensively researches on the safety operation support status of all subsystems, using gray system theory and system safety engineering theory to study the identification, forecasting, estimation, early warning and emergency rescue of security risks existing in the airport operation and guarantee.First, we discussed many airport security accident cases. Then based on qualitative analysis of accident tree, we analysed the human error factors of apron accidents or insecurity incidents by the method of dynamic gray correlation. Through that, we find that the main causations of human error are organization management and personal reasons, according to which the security management of apron can be improved and consummated pertinently.Second, combined the advantages of gray GM (1,1) metabolic model and Markov chain theory, we set up a airport security accident forecast model. Through the module built by the time series data accumulation, the gray forecast model sieves the stochastic components of original data series, strengthens the orderliness of new sequence and uses Markov chain to offset the shortage of gray forecast, to increase the prediction accuracy. So that we proposed a new effective method for airport security forecast which can reflect the actual situation of current system.Third, combined with active security management system of CAAC, we establish an evaluation index of civil airport security risk, by which we can quantitatively analyse civil airport security risk, and adopt grey multi-level evaluation method to evaluate the security risk. The result shows that it is a practical and effective method of risk evaluation.Fourth, on the basis of gray evaluation, we set up an airport security risk early warning model, which divides the airport into ten subsystems, and the airport's risk level is determined by the highest security risk alarm level of the support subsystems. This model is operable and practical, which will figure as a thermometer for the safety situation of civil airports, evaluating easily, scientifically and exactly,Finally, we studied and built the robust optimization method of support facility location problems about airport emergency rescue. How to arrive at the succor destination in the limited time is very important for the aviation flight security. Due to the effect of uncertain factors, the results of deterministic and stochastic method usually are far from the actual optimal one. Robust optimization method is an effective way to solve the uncertain problems, the maximum deviation between the result of which and the optimal result in all kinds of possible scenarios can be least.