Research On The Risk Evaluation And Management Of Biomass Energy In China

Nowadays the renewable energy has already become the research focus of many countries in consideration of the their energy security and sustainable development, especially the biomass energy, existed in the form of agricultural, forestry, industrial and municipal waste, biomass energy has so much advantages such as rich reserve, easy storage and high substitutability. As an industry, the existence of certain kinds of risk is unavoidable during the exploitation and utilization of biomass energy, so based on the comprehensive analysis of risk evaluation and mmanagement, this article calculated the amount of biomass energy resources, described various risk factors of biomass energy utilization, and evaluated the regional risk and project risk of biomass energy utilization in China through the establishment of risk evaluation and management model. The main conclusions are as follows:1. Started with the classification of biomass energy and the basic theory of risk research, the conception and characteristics of biomass energy risk were cleared, and by using the method of flow chart and experts consultation, an index system of five risk levels such as resource supply, market, technology system, supporting policy and natural environment including 14 indexes was established; according to the characteristics of different risk factors, some scientific methods such as comprehensive evaluation, experts evaluation, temporal analogy and sampling survey were chosen as the evaluation methods of biomass energy in China; at last, a risk identification, evaluation and management system was established by the description and discussion of some basic questions such as concept and implementation steps of risk management.2. According to the current situation of abundance and unbalanced distribution of biomass energy, the regional risk of biomass energy utilization in China was evaluated taking rural household biogas and cropstrw power generation as examples, the results indicated that the traditional agricultural region such as Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Hebei, Hunan, Guangxi and Hubei has a comparatively low risk due to abundant resource supply and low labour cost, while the regional risk of biomass energy utilization in northwest and east part of China such as Qinghai, Tibet, Gansu, Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai are comparatively high, of which the main reason is lacking of resource supply. So it is strongly recommended that paying great importance to the situation of resource supply, social and economic situation when choosinig developing patterns of biomass energy industry in a region.3. After the analysis of project risk evaluation, the rural energy project of Huimin Poultry Limited Company in Henan province was taken as an example to research the risk of biomass energy project. First of all, the SWOT method was adopted to analyze the strength, weakness, opportunity and threat of the project, then the risk of this project was evaluation from 9 risk factors including resource supply, construction, technology, operation, personnel, market, natural disaster, policy and law and CDM risk by the using of experts evaluation method. The results indicated that the risk level of this project is normal with a risk score of 43.3, close to comparatively low. Also the result suggested that giving full recognization and taking avoiding measures positively during the establishment and implementation of a biomass energy project since there existed various kinds of risks.4. Through the brief introduction of conception, development history, general procedure and prevention approach of risk management, the risk prevention approaches of developing China's biomass energy industry, the risk management of avoidance, control, transfer and self-retention of biomass energy project were provided as well as the risk sharing mechanism of biomass energy CDM project on the purpose of clearing the risk responsibility for both CERs providers and purchasers. Also it is recommended that taking those measures singly or in reasonable collocation according to practical situation in order to reduce the risk probability and damage, which at last would promote the sustainable development of biomass energy industry in China.