Research On The Model Chain Building Method In Emergency Model Base

Nowadays, with the development of society and the modernization process, the scale-enlarging and centralization of human's settlements, activities and their assets, the social mobility and complexity has unprecedentedly increased and has thus multiplied the incident break-outs world widely. In order to actively and effectively respond to these accidents, the Emergency Response Platform has been greatly developed. This platform is based on incident model to realize incidents'scientific forecast and warning, reasonable dispatch of resources, intelligent auxiliary policy-making. Recently more and more attention has been paid to the research and development of the incident response model, the types and quantity of which have been increased. Usually more than one models have to be integrated to form an incident-specific model chain due to the complication and multi layer of the policy making process in responding to an incident. The way the model chain is established is the key to the intelligent policy-making of the emergency response platform model base.Emergency model chain is formed through the selection and combination of the emergency response policy making models according to some principles to complete the respectively allocated phase tasks which cannot be done all by one model alone. To address the task decomposition of the incident with different surroundings and to match each task with the right model will be the bottleneck in establishing the model chain. The model credibility value is the important indicator for the models'participating, selecting and taking tasks.In respect to these problems, this paper proposes a method incident model chain is established, the dynamic network combination method based on model credibility value, including the incident model's layer network indication method, the method of assessing the model credibility value and task decomposition and selection method in light of different incident surroundings.Dynamic network combination is a model combination method to decompose the whole task and select the model for each phase task. Dynamic network combination method has kept the connection trait in static network combination and at the same time overcome its flaw of being unable to dynamically adjust model connection according to the incident information and the policy requirement; this method has taken the dynamic combination's advantage of selecting the optimal models for the model combination, while it has abandoned the complicated algorithm of selecting and combining models in accordance with the whole task.The hierarchy network model representation method is the base to realize the model chain establishment. The frame model, selection model, and attribute model will respectively provide for the model chain establishment with the task decomposition frame, target of model selection and the relative model knowledge.The assessment method of the model credibility value can make scientific and reasonable evaluation on the model performance in different emergency response environment based on the application in different systems and areas, and also avoids the inaccuracy of the constant value set by experts, becoming the significant knowledge in the model field and the basis of model selection in building a model chain.Based on the method of model chain establishment, this paper setups a small hazardous chemical material leak, fire and explosion incident response policy-making model base, which has been verified through cases.