Research On Model And Method Of Railway Large-sized Passenger Terminals Emergency Capability Assessment

With the construction and oprertion of the large modern integrated passenger terminals in China's Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other major cities, the research on the large modern integrated passenger terminals emergency management system becomes an important research topic , which suit to the actual situation in china. Because the development of emergency management system is complex systems engineering, the railway large-sized passenger terminals emergency capability assessment is significant based on systems engineering method.This paper studied the model and method of railway large-sized passenger terminals emergency capability assessment based on Beijing south railway station by some actual work of the project named of the reseach on large modern integrated passenger terminals operation management, which was led by the tutor.Firstly, this paper studied and analyzed the railway large-sized passenger terminals emergency management and emergency capability assessment systematically based on the actual situation in china, including the operation management system status analysis, the operation risk factors analysis, the entire process analysis of emergency management and emergency capacity assessment process analysis. Secondly, it aimed the research on model and method of railway large-sized passenger terminals emergency capability assessment. It designed the emergency capability assessment index system including the MECE principle during the design. After in-deep studied the hierarchy entropy analysis method to dealing with the weight, it calculated the weights of the emergency capability assessment indexes. And it studied the risk assessment model based on the set-valued statistics and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, proposed the emergency capability assessment model based on the risk. During the research on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the paper improved the circular distribution subordinate function to calculate the index membership. At last, the paper took Beijing south railway station as an example, using the method and the model of the assessment. And it offered some suggests to strengthen emergency capacity though the assessment results.