Dynamic Analysis And Simluated Forecast Of Forest Ecosystem Services In China

It has important significance for scientifically managing and running forest resources to evaluate the dynamic changes of the service function of forestry ecosystem system . By collecting national fourth(1989-1993),fifth(1994-1998),sixth(1999-2003)forest resource inventory data, observation data from domestic forestry ecological system, the dynamic change of NPP, the parameter of change price and domestic forestry"eleventh five plan", medium and long-playing development blueprint and combining the substance quantityi and the value quantity, we dynamically analyze and simulately forecast domestic the service function of forestr ecosystem, which aims to arose public's concern for regional ecosystem system, to promote environment audit , to take it into the account of national economy audit system , to realize green GDP finally so as to accelerate sustainable development .Since the implementation of our six major ecosystem projects, the improvement of the ecological environment, the total increase in natural forest resources, tree species have gradually becomed rational structure, tree growth rates and the quality of forest health have been improved, the total magnitude of value and unit area forest ecosystem function have been gradually improved. In 1993, 1998 and 2003 our forest ecosystem seven categories ecosystem services of the total economic value of 21411.80×10~8 yuan, 36433.26×10~8 yuan and 41237.23×10~8 yuan respectively, which has separately took up 98.81%,91.73% and 71.82% of GDP.In the 1998 and 2003 year the total ecological and economic value of our forest ecosystems'seven categories ecosystem services respectively over 70.16% and 92.59% than 1993. If a value for comparison purposes by 1993, 1998 and 2003, the direct economic value of forest ecosystem services is 468.19×10~8 yuan, 1110~.94×10~8yuan and 1421.54×10~8yuan., and the indirect economic value respective is 20943.60×10~8yuan, 35322.32×10~8yuan and 39815.69×10~8 yuan, which are 28 times more than direct economic value,which indicate that, forest ecosystems not only provides the direct values, but also provides significantly indirect economic value, and the indirect value provides more help for mankind than the value of forest products.Through the value changes of the forest ecosystems in 1993, 1998 and 2003, among contributions of value of all ecosystem services in 1993, the order of big and small is below: C fixation >air quality purifying >water storage >erosion control >nutrients cycle>timber and other products>provisioning of...