The Uncertainty Analysis And Countermeasures Of The Financial Support For The Development Of The Agricultural Industries In Xinjiang

Currently, uncertainty has been increased to run in the background of the trends of the international economy, the funds is difficult to obtain for the development of agricultural industries. The sufficient sources of funding become a bottleneck in the development process of agricultural industries, and the financial support is the decisive force for agricultural industries in Xinjiang, which the development of agricultural industries are sustainability, stability and healthy. However, there are wide varieties of conflicts, for example:there are frequent natural disasters but lack of the agricultural insurance in Xinjiang, there has the good momentum of development of agricultural industries but the shortage of the credit capital, the market is expanding year by year, that is the scale of agricultural products but price is volatility. All of the facts indicate that financial support is serious absence in the development process of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang.In this paper,"The uncertainty analysis and countermeasures of the financial support for the development of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang" is as the research’s topic, through the uncertainty analysis of the financial support for the development process of agricultural industries and combined with the development practice of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang, it’s to explore the sources of the uncertainty, characteristics and classification about the development of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang, as well as financial support the mechanism and aggregation root causes of the uncertain factors within the process of interaction between financial support and the development of the agricultural industries. It is to find out suitable methods and circumvent strategies, which is able to effectively avoid the the negative effects of uncertainty. The main contents of the paper are as follows:The first chapter is "the preface." This chapter describes the background of this paper, and excavates the theory and application of the significance in this chapter. On the basis of the literature review and evaluation of the domestic and international research, it’s to determine the content of the paper, methods and research mentality. Through the research goals established, this chapter is to work out the technical route of this research. Finally, it’s to summarize the innovation and deficiency of the paper.The second chapter is "the relevant theoretical basis and the definition of the concept." This chapter introduced the relevant basic theory, for example:uncertainty, financial support and agricultural industries. Then the relevant concepts and the study of the Perspective are defined. It is the definition that discuss the financial support for the development of the agricultural industries, the government, financial institutions (Including the formal and informal institution) and the main investors provide with various types of capital investment under the premise of the national macroeconomic control and strict regulatory. The government brings into play of the role of regulating, and the market bring into play of the mechanism of stir. The financial resources are allocated by the government or the market directly or indirectly, it’s to best meet the financial needs for the development of the organization of the agricultural industries. Uncertainty refers to the characteristics of the probability of non-steady valued attributes status, which composed macro-cluster events in the space known cases of the micro-uncertainty event with the characteristics of the Knight-uncertainty. In other words, the uncertainty did not represent characteristics, which is a distribution of probability, or that can not be measured by probability. Because the circumvention of uncertainties relates to the institutional setting inevitably, finally this chapter makes the appropriate introduction of the general theory of institution and institutional change.Chapter3,"the stability and uncertainty analysis of financial support for the industrial development in the framework of mathematical economics". This chapter made deductive inference of the two-sector of the neoclassical economic growth model and the investment accelerator model, which discuss the financial support for the industrial development. It discuss macroeconomic constraint conditions of the stability and uncertainty about the financial support for the industrial development, it demonstrated the Origin Problem of the model and their parameters’uncertainty, and demonstrated the dynamic stability and uncertainties of the financial support for the industrial development by using the linear simplification and the phase diagram, the way to find its equilibrium conditions and the saddle point uncertainties interval range of factors.Chapter4,"the general theory of uncertainty of the financial support for the industrial development". This chapter discussed uncertainty caused by the institution and institutional change, and then analyzed uncertainty of the economic system and the financial sector. Through the financial risk analysis of differences with the practical of industrial development, this chapter described the application of the risk analysis methodologies in economic practice, and leads into even greater uncertainty to the industrial development.Chapter5is "The uncertainty analysis of the financial support for the development of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang." Firstly, this chapter sorts out the current situation and the problems on the development process of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang. On this basis, it analyzed the uncertainty due to its characteristic of weak quality, the disadvantaged characteristic, and the mode of organizational structure and the trend of industrial development. It summarized the uncertainty of the financial support for the development of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang. Then this chapter analyzed the rural financial institution in Xinjiang, the financial system, the operational mechanism, the process of the asset securitization in rural and the informal finance. The above related factors’ uncertainties lead to even greater uncertainty on the financial support for the development of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang.Chapter6,"the strategies of uncertainty avoidance about the financial support for the development of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang by Perspective of Game Theory." By the foregoing analysis, it’s indicating that it needs financial support, which is the development of agricultural industries in Xinjiang. But it needs circumvent of uncertainty to ensure its orderly development. This chapter put forward (proposed) circumvent strategy of uncertainty to establish the investment funds of agricultural industries, which support the development process of Xinjiang’s agricultural industries using game theory in finance. It’s demonstrated on the tripartite game of benefits’ connection and the three-stage on Dynamic Game of the investment funds of agricultural industries, and the normative is described that is the external support system of the investment funds of agricultural industries. It expects to obtain the effective strategies to circumvent uncertainty about the financial support for the development of agricultural industries in Xinjiang.Chapter7,"the policy options and thinking about uncertainty avoidance on financial support for the development of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang." This chapter raised a number of policy proposals and thinking by studying the uncertain factors of financial support for the development of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang. In the discussion of policy proposals, it brings forward the mode selection of financial services in the development of agricultural industries, the promoting development of the rural informal finance in Xinjiang, the development paths of the new main Agricultural Organizations in Xinjiang, the innovative mode of the agricultural industries organization. Because of the dynamic and systematic Characteristics about the financial support for the development of agricultural industries in Xinjiang, so it concludes with a number of thought-provoking issues in end of the paper, such as:how to improve the system construction, changing all kinds of the focus of the financial sector’s service, the development of agricultural guarantee systems, the development of the rural construction of credit, the development paths of the agricultural industries organization, the farmers’ cooperatives and the leading agricultural enterprises. And the end is including the development paths of the innovative organization Mode of the agricultural industries, the modern agricultural demonstration park and the modern agricultural scientific and technological park. This paper expects can effectively avoid hazards due to the uncertain factors in the future development process of the Agricultural industries in Xinjiang.In this paper, the main innovations are as follows:The first, uncertainty is introduced into the interaction relationship between the real industries and the virtual financial sector in this paper, and apply it to specific practice of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang. It can distinguish between the risks and the uncertainty in the specific application scope of economic analysis, and corrected terminological fallacies proposed for a tentative study of the relevant the field of analytical paradigm.The second, the paper makes out the mathematical analysis of the stability and uncertainty about the interaction relationship between the real industries and the virtual financial sector, and expanded number of variables of the Solow Model in neoclassical economics. It tried to expand its parameters of constraint conditions from the homogeneous characteristic into nonhomogeneous characteristic, in order to the extending model will promote the explanatory power and the economic practice of and applicability.The third, I am trying to use the concept of uncertainty analysis, in order to be applied the financial support for the development of the agricultural industries in Xinjiang in the preliminary preparation of research process. And I work out the relevant research report on the current process of building the modern agricultural demonstration park and the modern agricultural technology demonstration park in Xinjiang especially. It has theoretical guiding significance, and it can provide and intellectual support for the modern agricultural industries in Xinjiang. For the reason, the paper obtained the written instructions by leaders at the Agriculture Office of Autonomous Regional Party Committee.