Research Of Path And Early-warning For Coordinated Development Of Henan Environment And Economy

With the remarkable achievements of economic and social development, China’sattracted the worldwide attention. However, the economic growth causes a seriousenvironmental pollution and ecological destruction because it is based on highconsumption and high pollution of the traditional development model, even at theexpense of the environment, which aggravates the pressure of resource utilization aswell as environmental protection. As a main member of Central Plains EconomicZone, Henan province is suffering from energy shortage, resource shortages, as wellas increasing environmental pressures, which has become an important factor ofrestricting its sustained and rapid development. Facing with the new problems, thenew challenges, and the new requirements of resources, environment, ecology, thedevelopment pattern of traditional resource-based industries and polluting industrieshas no longer adapted to development needs, so it is of urgent practical significance tochoose a coordinate development path between environment and economy.Based on the background above, the thesis is designed to explore the coordinateddevelopment of regional environment and economy system, the operation mechanismof economic system, and the coordinated development path as well as its earlywarning under the principles of synergetic, general system theory, and systemdynamics theory. This thesis is mainly composed of four parts:(1) based onsynergetic theory and general system theory, the comprehensive evaluation analysis ofthe coordinated development between environment and economy of Henan provinceis conducted with the comprehensive efficiency of coordination degree model, thedynamic coupling degree model and cloud model;(2) Through the analysis ofoperation mechanism of the regional environmental economic system and theconstruction of dynamic model of the environment economy system, the simulationresults and policy regulations will be illustrated for the basic behavior of the system;(3) A suitable development path and a strategic countermeasures of the coordinateddevelopment between environment and economy will be selected for Henan provinceafter the optimization evaluation of three designed development simulation scheme(high economic efficiency, environmental protection, and environment-economycoordination) with the DEA model and coordination degree model;(4) On the basis ofthe environmental and economic system dynamics model, constructing anenvironmental economic early warning system based on PSR model, the evaluation of early-warning system and dynamic prediction for the environmental and economicdevelopment of Henan province will be made by comprehensive evaluation.The research results indicate that:(1) from1990to2012, the coordinateddevelopment between environmental and economic system of Henan province hasundergone a process of spiraling climbing–the environmental system and economicsystem from the low-level coordination, symbiotic development stage, to the twoorder parameters of the environment and economy mutual coercion, interaction untilthe system evolution to a new development state. The environmental and economicsystem of Henan province has evolved to a state of moderate coordinateddevelopment from the low-level coordination development in early1990’s. however,the contradiction between the environment and economy of Henan province still exist,which should adjust and intervene by corresponding economic measures,environmental policy and other external regulations to influence the evolution rate,direction and the interaction of economic parameters and environmental parametersand promote an orderly evolution for environmental and economic system.(2) This research starts with the major factors affecting the coordinateddevelopment of environment and economy, and then resorts to the theory ofenvironmental economics to simplify the environmental economic system, and finallyestablishes a system dynamic simulation model of coordinated development betweenenvironment and economy after the qualitative analysis of the causal relationship ofeach element in economy and environment. Through the simulation analysis ofHenan’s basic behavior in environmental economic system, it is found that theeconomic growth rests a lot with the second industry. However, this kind ofdevelopment pattern may run a big risk, especially when the economic growth reliestoo much on the economic policies that emphasizes the development of industry whileneglects the investment of agriculture and the third industry; which of course, willeventually lead to deficiency of high-level industrial structure, result in a surge in thestock of the environment, and prompt the further deterioration of the environmenteven if it can bring about the high speed of economic growth under the circumstancesof backward development of basic industries.(3)Regional environmental and economic system is a comprehensive systemwith multi input and multi output, and it takes25years to design the developmentplan for. Since involved to the time sequenced problem of multiple inputs andmultiple outputs evaluation,13schemes (12simulation schemes and a current scheme) will be selected in this thesis to evaluate the environmental and economic efficiencyby DEA. From the DEA evaluation results, the effective environmental and economicefficiency of DEA is H-J-4, H-J-5, H-1, H-2and H-3. Usually, the effective DEAdecision unit is not unique, and there may be more than one effective decision unit, soin this thesis, two evaluations of the simulation scheme will be made through thecoordinated development degree evaluation model of DEA. And the results show thatthe degree of the coordinated development within the range of the simulation ofHenan’s environment and economy has reached intermediate value under theconditions of coordinated scheme4and5. Therefore, the practical strategy and pathof economic and environmental coordinated development for Henan Province can beformulated according to the scheme4and5.(4) Based on the system dynamics model of environment and economy, thisthesis has first established the early warning index system of environment andeconomy in accordance with the PSR model; and then made the simulation of theseindexes for Henan under the three development modes of the current plan,environmental-economic coordinated scheme4and scheme5; finally conducted theearly warning evaluation and prediction of Henan’s environmental and economicsystem within the framework of three schemes by comprehensive evaluation andcloud model. The results show that:1) In the current development plan of Henan Province, the warming value ofenvironmental economic system generally tends to decrease during the simulationfrom2005to2030. Of which, the warming value from2005to2011belongs to heavyalert district; the warming value of2012has changed into medium alert district; withthe macro-control policies of environment and economy by Henan ProvincialGovernment, the development status has gradually improved and come across thelight alert district (yellow zone) in2023, then step into the warming district (blue zone)with the elimination of alarm for environmental economic system development.2) Within the development model of scheme4, the warming value ofenvironmental economic system generally tends to decrease during the simulation. Ofwhich, the warming value from2005to2009belongs to heavy alert district; thewarming value of2010has changed into medium alert district; due to the rapideconomic development, the investment scale of environmental protection is graduallyincreasing, so the warming value of environmental system steps into the light alertdistrict in2011, and meanwhile, the warming value of complex system also switches to the light alert district in2013. With the improvement of environmental andeconomic development, the environmental and economic system of Henan will comeacross the light alert district (yellow zone) in2021, and step into the warming district(blue zone).3) Within the development model of scheme5, the warming value ofenvironmental economic system generally tends to decrease during the simulation. Ofwhich, the warming value from2005to2008belongs to heavy alert district; thewarming value of2009has changed into medium alert district. The economic scaleand speed of scheme5is slightly lower than that of scheme4, because in scheme5,the economic development mainly depends on the tertiary industry. Therefore, thewarming value of economic system in scheme5steps into medium alert district in2011, with one year earlier than that of scheme4switching to light alert district. Withthe improvement of both environmental and economic development, theenvironmental and economic system of Henan will come across the light alert district(yellow zone) and step into the warming district (blue zone) in2020, with one yearearlier than that of scheme4shifting to the coordinated development stage ofenvironment and economy.