Research On Identification And Prevention Of New Rural Social Old-age Insurance

By the end of2009, the carrying out of new rural social old-age insurance (NRSOI) pilot work marked China’s rural social old-age insurance system into a brand-new historic period. With the gradual expansion of the scope of the pilot, NRSOI will realize the rural residents full coverage in The Twelfth Five-Year Plan of National Economic and Social Development of China. Currently, Guidelines for Implementation of New Rural Social Old-age Insurance Pilot Program by the State Council (GF [2009] No.32) only gave the provisions of the operation mode, basic principle and frame contents, while specific implementation in the pilot areas of provinces and counties will be different, and need to be further developed and perfected. As a newborn thing, NRSOI system in pilot process is faced with many problems. For example, imperfect system design, differences among different regional areas in the operation of system, implementation of the system affected by economic, political, cultural, historical and other factors, as well as the system to the external environment uncertainty factors etc.. These issues may lead to the deviation of NRSOI from the expected target of the system.Therefore, as NRSOI system concerns the strategy of national long-term stability, harmonious development, it is necessary to evaluate the effect of the system and identify the risk factors in the system to prevent the risk of and realize the system’s expected goal.The risk of NRSOI here refers to the result and activities of the system deviate from the expected target in certain conditions and surroundings because of certain unexpected factors, and result in some losses. As NRSOI is still in its infancy, most people generally pay close attention to its positive role, but overlooked or ignored the existence of the instability and uncertainty, their risk consciousness is relatively weak to a certain extent. The total aim of this paper is to identify all the risk factors and evaluation the key risks in the system design and process. Through quantitative and qualitative analysis, static analysis and dynamic prediction of the combination, reasonable and practical analysis of the combination, the theory and countermeasure research methods be summarized.The contents of this paper mainly divided into six parts in addition to the introduction and summary:The first part defines the NRSOI risk and connotation of risk management. On the basis of the introduction of NRSOI condition, system contents and characteristics, taking the system of rural society endowment insurance mode change as the breakthrough point, the research firstly gave the concept of the risk of NRSOI, clarified a series of characteristics of the system risk, that is the occurrence of testability, testability, risk compensation or payment of the continuity, and political significance of risk prevention is more important than its economic significance. Then we explored the connotation, goal and significance of the risk management of new rural social old-age insurance. Finally, the paper constructed the risk management procedures of NRSOI of "comprehensive identification—a key factor screening—assessment and confirmation—prevention", and laid the follow-up research framework.The second part is about the risk factors identification theory of NRSOI. On the basis of the general risk recognition theory, the research carded the commonly used methods and recognition process, analyzed the aim, principle and methods of the risk identification of NRSOI. We identified the risk measurement standards, and translate the system’s basic principles, that is "basic security"," flexible"," wide coverage,"" multi-level" and" sustainable ", into the risk measurement and confirmation standard. Establishment of NRSOI risk management’s expectations can provide the scientific basis to identify and assess the NRSOI risks.The third part of the dissertation is to identify the total risk factors of the NRSOI and screened the key risks. Through the analysis of the risk of NRSOI generated antecedent and its internal, external mechanism, we interpreted the risk formation link and conduction mechanism. On the basis of which clearing NRSOI risk identification process, focusing on the system within the endogenous risks, as well as the external effects of exogenous risks. The research identified the comprehensive risk factors in the NRSOI in the aspects of system design and system operation process, and then through the AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and Delphi expert consultation method, we get the system’s risk factors weight assignment and identified the key risk factors.The fourth and the fifth part of the paper are about the empirical evaluation on the key risks in NRSOI system. We focused on NRSOI pilot counties of Hubei province to establish the survey database, and evaluated key risk factors in two aspects:one is system design, the other is system operation of financial sustainable development. In details, the fourth part is risks evaluation on the system design. According to the system’s expected goal, the dissertation taking "basic insurance" as standard to analyze the risk of pension replacement rate, personal accounts of the coefficient risk and system integration and convergence risk, through the methods of constructing of mathematical model, calculating the rural dwellers’life table etc.. While the fifth part of the dissertation basically focus on the risks on financial sustainable development of NRSOI. Using the data of pilot areas and non-pilot areas of Hubei province, the research applied the tools of LOGISTIC analysis, questionnaire investigation, and make a empirical evaluation on the county-level financial risk, collective financing risk and individual risk.The sixth part is about the risk prevention strategies on the basis of the risk identification and confirmation. Firstly, the dissertation clarifies the goals and principles of risk prevention of NRSOI. Secondly, the specific measures for risk prevention of NRSOI on key risk factors are discussed in two aspects. On the one hand, the risk prevention measures on system design include stabilizing pension replacement rate by designing a combination policy as "flat-rate benefit numeration plan+layered multi-pillar financial subsidy system", and developing individual account coefficient plan by improving actuarial system. On the other hand, the risk prevention measures on financial sustainable development are as following:establishing a "ladder" subsidy scheme, setting up prudent fiscal classification subsidy mechanism, perfecting the collective financing mechanism and incentive individual insurance. In addition, innovation of insurance fund management, improvement of information management systems, completing the agencies handling capacity, establishing of NRSOI risk identification assessment system, constructing risk warning system and optimization NRSOI operation environment are all needed to prevent the risk in new rural social old-age insurance.The research is one of the results of major project of Ministry of education of humanities and social science key research base " Research on risk management of social security"(Grant No.:2009JJD630008) and the key projects of Ministry of education philosophy and social science research "new rural social pension insurance system research"(project number:09JZD0027).