The Chinese Energy Management Contract(EPC) Research On Risk Management Of Project Financing

:As people have paid unprecedented attention to the development of Low-Carbon Economy which is caused by global climate change, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China announced "Industrial energy saving the12th Five-Year Plan" in February2012, which formally proposed the industry energy conservation program of600billion. Faced with such a huge developing space, the relative specialized energy service corporations will therefore be benefited. Energy performance Contracting (EPC) is an important carrier of the commercial operation of the energy service corporations. And the government has clearly put forward that we must speed up the implementation of the energy performance contracting and promote the enterprises'energy saving technology reconstruction. Nonetheless, EPC is faced with financing difficulties and large financing risks in commercial promotion process, which seriously hinder the implementation and further development of EPC projects.Based on the above research background, and the energy performance contracting theory, the project financing theory and risk management theory, after analyzing and summarizing the current developing status and main problems of the financing risks management of the energy performance contracting project in China, in accordance with the risk management process which including risk identification, risk analysis and risk prevention three important aspects, we deeply research the risk identification, risk analysis and risk prevention issues of the energy performance contracting project financing in China. First, depending on the risk under different scenarios of energy performance contracting project financing, we identify the financing risks of the energy performance contracting project in China by hierarchical holographic modeling method, and build a financing risks HHM framework for energy performance contracting project in the context of a number of risks and uncertainties. Then we empirically study the impact factors of the financing risks of the energy performance contracting project by utilizing the principal component analysis and regression analysis. Considering the multi-level features and uncertainties features of the evaluation of the energy performance contracting project financing risks, we build the contract energy management project financing risk assessment model by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method (FCEM) to carry out a risk assessment of China's energy performance contracting project financing. We deeply study the risk prevention of the energy performance contracting project financing in the end. More specifically, our works are summarized as follows:First, we systematically analyze the related theories of energy performance contracting project financing and risk management. Centering on the energy performance contracting project financing risk management, this study systematically analyzes the energy performance contracting theory, project financing theory and risk management theory as the theoretical basis of the thesis, which provide a reliable, solid theoretical foundation to conduct in-depth research for this paper.Second, on the basis of the analysis of the energy performance contract project mode and financing status,we use the principal-agent theory and risk sharing contract theory to our country energy performance contrafct project financing risk formation mechanism to in-depth study and analysis of the case.Third, we utilize the hierarchical holographic modeling method to identify the risks of the energy performance contracting project financing. Because the risks are different from different perspectives of the energy performance contracting project financing, the hierarchical holographic modeling method is adopted for risk identification of the energy performance contracting project financing. In addition, in the context of a number of risks and uncertainties we build on energy performance contracting projects financing risk model and seven sub-models of the energy performance contracting projects financing risk, which include the policy risk, market risk, the financial institutions risk, the risk of energy-utilizing institution, the risk of energy service companies, project stage risk and contract risk.Fourth, we empirically study the impact factors of the energy performance contracting project financing risk in China. We use of principal component analysis to extract the principal component impact factors of the energy performance contracting project financing risks, and do regression analysis with regard to the project financing risks and the impact factors by multiple linear regression method. The empirical results imply that among the impact factors of the energy performance contracting project financing risks, the technology advantage of the project and the lending ratio are related to the energy performance contracting project financing risks to a certain degree. Both of them are positive related to the project financing risks. Based on these results, the paper believes that the inclusion of a finance lease can reduce the demand for project funding, thus the project financing lending ratio and financing risks are reduced, which makes the resolution of the energy performance contracting project financing difficulties and risk prevention become possible.Fifth, we construct an energy performance contracting project financing risk assessment model reasonably. This paper first discusses the principles of determining the index of contract energy management project financing risk evaluation. Based on these principles, we establish the energy performance contracting project financing risk evaluation index system which includes five risk factors and twenty indicators. The five risk factors are policy risk, market risk, the risk of financial institutions, the risk of energy-utilizing institution and the risk of energy service companies. Then, on the basis of comparative analysis of existing evaluation methods, aiming to the multi-level and uncertainty characteristics of the energy performance contracting project financing risk evaluation, we propose a project financing risk evaluation model which combined with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM). The weights of each indicator of the risk factors and each risk factor are given. Moreover, we illustrate the model by a specific case.Sixth, we scientifically explore the energy performance contracting project financing risk prevention mechanisms. Based on in-depth analysis and summary of the determining criteria of the energy performance contracting project financing risk prevention mechanisms, and the theoretical advantages and practical role of finance lease, we propose the basic architecture of the energy performance contracting project financing risk prevention mechanisms which combined with financing lease, and make an in-depth analysis.