Study On The Risk Management Of New-type Rural Social Old-age Insurance

New-type Rural Socialized Old-age Insurance (NRSOI) was put into action on September1,2009and covered all parts of China rural on July1,2012. The NRSOI have two main characteristic. First, it takes the model of "individual pay cost, collective allowance and government subsidies" in fund-raising; Second, it takes the model of combining fundamental annuities fully paid by fiscal with individual account pension in treatment paying.New-type Rural Socialized Old-age Insurance reflects not only the security responsibilities of government but also the efficiency of the system by individual pay cost. It is the forceful measures to solve the problem of rural Old-age insurance and the important policy after the agricultural tax which is the most beneficial to peasants. As the basic pension insurance system of townsfolk and the enterprise annuity system, New-type Rural Social Old-age Insurance also exist all aspects of risk. It is impossible to recognize and avoid the risks of New-type Rural Socialized Old-age Insurance in order to carry out the system policy of "sustainable, basic, wide coverage and flexible".Henan Province is a big agricultural province with higher proportion of rural population and more serious rural social old-age insurance than other provinces. There is important practical significance to take Henan Province as the research object about risk management of new-type rural old-age insurance. Based on the study of risk management as a starting point, according to the field research in experimental units of the policy of new-type rural social old-age insurance, this article analyses the risk new-type rural social old-age insurance from the aspects of risk identification, risk assessment and risk disposition by using a variety of research methods. The conclusion of this article includes following main points.First, synthesizing the methods of risk identification, this article identifies the risk of new-type rural social old-age insurance to system designation risk, system operation risk and the external environment risk. System design risk mainly includes individual annuities pay roll coefficient and pension replacement rate; The risk factors of System operation mainly includes fundraising risk, fund operation and management and operation risk of social insurance agencies; External environment risk mainly includes economic environment risk, political risk and the natural environment risk.Second, according to the risk evaluation through the actuarial model, we find that both individual annuities pay roll coefficient and pension replacement rate of new-type rural social old-age insurance are two low to achieve the goal of "insure the basic necessity" in Henan Province as to the whole country. New-type rural social old-age insurance basic doesn’t exist the risk of personal and financial financing except for a few poor areas and poor families, but there is a serious collective funding risk. New-type rural social Old-age insurance system may face a greater risk of devaluation because the fund operation and current earnings cannot cope with the possible inflation, The unsatisfied policy propaganda that the agencies and personnel of New-type rural social old-age insurance may caused the risk of low endowment rate, endowment breaking off, even to refuse to join. Understaffed, especially lack of skilled personnel with backward management information system and financial institutions unwilling cooperation leads to the inefficient operation risk of new-type rural social insurance system. Fortunately, these risks can be controlled or eliminated through efforts.The probability that occurs the political environment and economic environment risk is very small in the addition of the smooth economic operation and political stability.Third, according to the results of assessment to new-type rural social insurance, this article puts forward some several risk handling Suggestions. First, we can raise the rate of return by optimizing the way of funds investment yields. The risk of low pay roll coefficient and low replacement rate can be controlled by improving endowment rate and the grade of pay cost as to increasing payment years through a variety of subsidies and incentives. Second, the risk of collective financing can be reduced through strengthening the support to collective economy. Third, in order to overcome the fund risk of depreciation, the overall level should be improved and put the funds into the market. Last, the measures such as optimizing allocation of human and material resources, adopting scientific tools and management methods should be taken to avoid the risks of institutional operation. Due to the external environment risk has a great deal of uncertainty and uncontrollability, it is difficult to carry on the risk control or processing, therefore, this article does not discuss the external environment risk treatment.There are two innovations in this article. One is that the article has made a system analysis about risk identification, risk assessment and risk disposition from such three aspects as system design, system operation and external environment. The other is that taking the Henan Province which lies in the middle of China as research object can come to the representative conclusion about the risk management of new-type rural social old-age insurance. The difficulty of study in this paper lies in the actuarial assessment to system risk. New-type rural social old-age insurance is still a immature, dynamic changing system Because of the fact that it is just more than four years from new-type rural social old-age insurance starting running. The risk of new-type rural social old-age insurance presents the important characteristics of complexity, potentiality and uncertainty. The research achievements which can be made use of about risk management of new-type rural social old-age insurance system is neither rich nor systematic, which brings great difficulties to this article’s research. Therefore, the study on the risk management of new-type rural social old-age insurance is a bold try. It is hard to avoid problems and shortcomings in the study. I will do my best to improve the study in the future research.