The Influence Of Urbanization On The Carrying Capacity Of Land Resources Of Beijing,Tianjin And Hebei

The coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has become a major national strategy, it has also assumed the historical mission of new economic growth pole of China. In the context of the rapid development of urbanization and limited land resources of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the capacity of the regional ecological environment has been close to or reached the limits. The bottleneck effects of land resources is increasingly clear, therefore, the study of the impact of urbanization of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei on land carrying capacity, systematic demonstration of the relationship of urbanization of land comprehensive carrying capacity has great theoretical and practical significance for enhancing the carrying capacity of land resources of the area and optimizing urban space and development model.Based on urbanization, land comprehensive carrying capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research object, analyzes the influence and the conduction relationship between urbanization and land carrying capacity is analyzed, the “urbanization- carrying capacity of land resources” system dynamics model is built. Under the different policies, simulation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban policy bearing capacity and countermeasures are put forward. Research work and the main contributions of this dissertation are as the following three aspects: first, based on the relationship of urbanization, population, food, land and economic output, the "urbanization- carrying capacity of land resources" system is defined. Second, by setting "urbanization- bearing capacity of land resources" system variables, draw the causality diagram and system flow diagram, determine the quantitative relation between the variables, an “urbanization- bearing capacity of land resources” system dynamics model is built. Third, based on system dynamics model, the four kinds of urbanization policy development situation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei bearing capacity of land resources, to simulate the change trend and put forward suggestions for promoting the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei land carrying capacity.According to the scenario simulation and model predictions, in 2015-2030, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will witness striding urbanization. Government-led policy will have a greater impact on the land use, urbanization, carrying capacity of land resources and construction land, in food carrying capacity of land resources and agricultural land, market leading policy will have a greater impact.Therefore, in the rapid development stage of urbanization, market-oriented policies can effectively promote the development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei areas; and in the relatively higher stage of urbanization, the adoption of a government-led policy measures can maintain the balance of construction land and agricultural land throughout the region. Second, in terms of the amount of cultivated land areas, to give priority to the balanced development, while at the same time to focus on market-led development policy disequilibrium role in improving economic aspects of agricultural land. Third, to enhance the process of construction land per capita, more take the unbalanced development policies to promote growth in per capita construction land; when construction land per capita reaches a certain size, more balanced development of the use of policy to control the scale of construction land per capita to maintain it at a reasonable level.