Research On Agricultural Water Resources Carrying Capacity Evaluation Based On Optimial Allocation

Sanjiang Plain has fitting climate, flat terrain, abundant water resources, fertile soil, rich resources and favorable environment which is elected as one of China top ten New Heaven by the Chinese national geographic magazine. Various climatic conditions in the region, hydrogeological conditions are very conducive to agricultural production. With multiple generations of struggle and hard work, this area has become very important for the country’s commodity grain production bases. In recent years, a lot of serious problems existed with the rapid development of the social and economic and under the interference of high strength human activities in Sanjiang Plain, such as unreasonable water supply structure, falling water tables, serious water and soil loss, degraded wetland function, deficient water resources and water pollution, and water supplies to keep pace with the social and economic sustainable development caused a serious threat to the sustainable utilization and the water crisis has become the constraint to carry out the strategy of sustainable development in Sanjiang Plain.For many present in this study area mining and the use of water resources in the process of problem. In this paper, in order to achieve sustainable social and economic growth, based on the purpose of continuous mining and the use of water resources to achieve optimal allocation study in Sanjiang Plain water resources carrying capacity and water premise gives some suggestions next to continuous mining and the use of water resources to achieve the purpose of the study area, the local water resources and continuous mining and the use of science to provide a scientific basis and decision-making guidance. The main contents and conclusions are as follows.First, the relationship among the sustainable development theory and water resources carrying capacity and the optimal allocation of water resources is espounded, water resources carrying capacity, optimizing the allocation of water resources and the complex adaptive system were overviewed. Based on these analysis, according to the practical condition of water resources utilization in Sanjiang Plain, the water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system was established, the evaluation standard and the index weight were confirmed. Then the agricultural water resources carrying capacity of Sanjiang Plain in 2012 were evaluated by using Γ-type distribution index formula method based on particle swarm optimization. The research results showed that the water resources carrying capacity of Hegang, Shuangyashan, Jiamusi and Qitaihe belonged to II level which has strong carrying capacity and the water resources carrying capacity of Jixi belonged to III level which has middle carrying capacity.Second, in the evolution mechanism of sanjiang plain water resources system are analyzed in detail and hierarchical structure based on CAS features such as, set up based on the theory of complex adaptive system, the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources in the sanjiang plain model, based on real coding accelerating genetic algorithm to multi-objective nested model, got the different water use plan, the results show that water resources has become a major factor, limit the coordinated development of local social, economic and ecological. Research on water resources carrying capacity and water resources optimization allocation model, the relationship between the variety of different water resource utilization plan of water resources carrying capacity evaluation, put forward the strong bearing capacity under the condition of water resources allocation model, provide the basis for water resources optimal allocation model of identification.Finally, on the basis of the analysis of quantity, development and utilization state, carrying capacity and optimial allocation results of water resources in Sanjiang Plain, the countermeasure to enhance water resources carrying capacity and the measure to guarantee water resources optimial allocation of Sanjiang Plain were proposed. The countermeasure can provide decision supports for sustainable and efficient utilization of water resources in Sanjiang Plain.