Analysis And Application Of Carrying Capacity Of Water Resources

On the basis of full analysis of research actuality in China and abroad, this paper probes into the necessity and significance of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) analysis; investigates the basic and supporting theory of water resources; analyzes systematically the concept and connotation of WRCC with the emphasis on coherence of definitions and quantified assessment results; exhibits WRCC for populations, social-economy and eco-environment by degree of satisfaction and probability of realization; and involves eco-environment system into direct carrying object of water resources. Method of quantification is improved. It is pointed out that quantification method of WRCC may be expressed by quantified indices and realization degree of carrying, and it also analyzes the calculation method of quantification, which effectively solves the problem of measurement and coherence. Based on the analysis of influential factor and system model, it establishes the integrated model, and method of comprehensive analysis which is joined by quantification calculation of basic WRCC indices, and assessment of group index system. The ordinary and specific quantification index, and the comprehensive and integrative assessment index, statically and dynamically express the status quo of WRCC, and the degree of realization and harmony of populations, socio-economy and eco-environment target. It also analyzes boundary conditions of quantification calculation method, proposes prediction method combined with target trends of populations, socio-economy, eco-environment and water resources development regarding supply and demand, and undergoing theory of each form, screenes constitutive index, set forth assessment index system for WRCC, and construes assessment approaches of analytic hierarchy process. Started from resources, structure, economy, technology and management, method and strategy for improvement of water resources carrying capacity are illustrated corresponding to WRCC analytic frame. Based on water resources development and utilization analysis of Haihe River Basin, development trends of populations, water resources, socio-economy, eco-environment, and analysis of water resources supply and demand in Haihe River Basin are predicted according to research findings, and implementations of the quantification calculation and index system assessment are carried out to validate practicability of WRCC analysis method.