Measure Of Urban Water Resources Carrying Capacity Design

Water is the fundamental element for all the creatures in the world. Meanwhile, water is the most precious natural resource for surviving and developing of human beings. However, water resource shortage is becoming the bottleneck for city, even country's development. Now, water resource crisis has turned into an unavoidable issue.In order to analyze this issue deeply, this thesis reviews the literature of city water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) first. Then propose the definition of WRCC for this study. In the theory study part, the sustainable theory and regional economy theory are introduced, and city water resource system is analyzed. Whereafter we research the relationships between city water resource sub-system and economy sub-system, social sub-system, and ecological sub-system respectively. At last, we conclude the conceptional model of the city water resource-economy-social coupling system.The quantitative analysis is divided into two parts: theory discussion and demonstration analysis. Quantitative analysis method--principal component analysis-- is presented in the former. The history data from 2000 to 2007 based on the Chengdu city is collected and calculated. The result illustrates that the exploration potential of Chengdu city WRCC is decreasing from 2000 to 2007.This study also researches the ecological system of Chengdu city. The history data shows that the pollution emission of Chengdu is over the limit badly. For the purpose of reaching balance between ecological and water resource system in the future, the reducing rate of pollution emission is calculated for the future years of Chengdu. Forecasting the pollution emission of the year 2010 by the WASP model, and using the history data, this thesis predicts the economy and population data scientificly and truned it into the emission index. Setting the pollution emission of the year 2010 of Chengdu as the benchmark, the reducing rate of the year 2010, 2015, and 2020 of Chengdu is calculated. Both of the results of principle component analysis and reducing rate calculation displays that the most important influence factors are economy and population scale, following is the water resource natural endowment. Finally, this thesis chooses the three most important influence factors, which are secondary industry output, tertiary industry output and urban area population size, and analyzes the sensitivity of the three factos to the reducing rate of pollution emission. The result demonstrates that it is more effective to adjust industry structure, and enforce the energy conservation and emission reduction of the secondary and tertiary industry for controlling future pollution of Chengdu.