Research On The Auto Industry Population Ecosystem With B-D Functional Response And Delayed Stage Structure In China

World economy and automobile industry development history indicate that automobile industry plays the supporting role in both developed countries and developing countries and it is the industry representing a country’s industrialization level. Internal structure of China’s automobile industry evolves in the complicated way and the relationship between complete vehicle enterprises and auto parts enterprises has become one of the core problems in the entire industry. Complete vehicle enterprises hope to gradually peel off the auto parts production with low profit so as to shorten the distance between them and transnational automobile enterprises in complete vehicle production links. Nevertheless, auto parts enterprises in China are scattered, which leads to the low-level and repeated construction and they need to improve both product quality and technical content. As to joint-ventured complete vehicle enterprises, they tend to favor auto parts enterprises in the corresponding system in the aspect of auto parts purchasing, which makes it hard for domestic auto parts enterprises to enter their purchasing system and it finally results in the low market shares of these enterprises in the core parts market. Besides, automobile enterprises in Japan, Europe and America insist on the non-disclosing technology strategy in the aspect of key technology and key auto parts production, which leads to the great distance between domestic auto parts enterprises and foreign enterprises in fields of key auto parts and automobile electronics.Based on the aforesaid problems, this research tends to start from the new view --population ecology, to constitute an automobile industry management system ---automobile industry population ecological system and it will use the method based on the research of actual measurement and research of experimental measurement to carry out research on system optimization and innovation-based development. Research of actual measurement -- select one typical area and conduct research based on the actual data collected by using ways such as actual measurement and actual investigation, etc. Research of experimental measurement is able to effectively alleviate the difficulty in actually measuring the number of characteristic values in research of actual measurement and it will adopt the statistical data under certain standard to conduct the research. The final purpose of the research is to take theories and methods of ecology and species ecology as its guidance to sort out the evolution pattern of species ecological system in China’s automobile industry and the research shall focus on the following aspects:(1) Niche evolution of species ecological system in China’s automobile industry; (2) Interaction among subspecies in population ecological system in China’s automobile industry; (3) Whether or not species ecological system in China’s automobile industry is able to reach the condition or status for stability. The aforesaid stability is the precondition for the evolution of species in automobile industry.By concentrating on the main purpose in this research, the paper compares, inherits and develops researches related to this field in current stage based on TRIZ Theory and SCP Normal Form and conducts qualitative research on the connotation of the population ecological system in automobile industry. Based on the research of actual measurement on population ecology in Shenyang auto parts industry and niche research of experimental measurement in the five industrial clusters in automobile industry in China, the thesis conducts qualitative research on the connotation of population ecological system in automobile industry. The research result indicates that populations do exist and the influence on populations evolution brought by competition over resources can be described through niche and it is able to use theories and methods of species ecology to start research on population ecological system in automobile industry, by which it further confirms the research normal form for population ecological system in automobile industry -- NSIS Normal Form (Niche-Structure-Interaction-Stability).It conducts empirical research based on NSIS Normal Form and the data are originated from China Automobile Industry Yearbook. Complete vehicle enterprises and auto parts enterprises contain BD reaction functions and phase-relay ODEs with data processing conducted by matlab7.0. The contents in empirical research include the four aspects as follows:firstly, it conducts horizontal (niche measure resource matrix in the same year) and vertical (niche measure resource matrix in different years) researches on niche (N——Niche) in China’s automobile industry; secondly, it studies the influence on population structure (S——Structure) brought by niche. It sets up single-species phase-relay ODEs for complete vehicle enterprises. The research results indicate that niche is able to reflect the competition over resources among populations in local area, which will further influence the change and evolution of population structure at higher level constituted by local populations; thirdly, it studies the interaction (I——Interaction) among populations. It sets up BD reaction functions and phase-relay ODEs for both complete vehicle enterprises and auto parts enterprises and the research results indicate that the two populations constitute the hosting relationship with remarkable dependent features. Finally, it conducts verification of stability of the populations ecological system it sets up. The research results indicate that internal function and manual interference have the most obvious influence on system stability.Based on theoretical and empirical researches, it has drawn the conclusion as follows:(1) Hosting relationship exists between complete vehicle enterprises and auto parts enterprises. Current development of auto parts enterprises causes minor damage to the development of complete vehicle enterprises, which does not lead to the deterioration of the populations of complete vehicle enterprises and it does stimulate the slow evolution of the species of complete vehicle enterprises, (2) Complete vehicle enterprises are conducting technical transfer and knowledge transmission to auto parts enterprises, which plays the role of promoting the technological advancement of auto parts enterprises. (3) Harmful competition exists among auto parts enterprises, which influences the evolution of enterprises and it is able to elevate quality certification requirement or conduct cross-area industrial regrouping so as to elevate the overall competitive force of auto parts enterprises. (4) Guiding function (internal function) of complete vehicle enterprises for auto parts enterprises and the instructional function of relevant policies belong to the important factor that will influence the stable development of both complete vehicle enterprises and auto parts enterprises so as to realize the sustainable development. Under the condition that auto parts enterprises are unable to inherit and embrace the technical transfer from Japan, Europe and America, the ability of complete vehicle enterprises in possessing wider niche is able to promote the technological advancement of auto parts enterprises through cooperation or acquisition.In the modeling process, this research follows the principle of simplifying parameters and it is hard to avoid the objective deficiency existing in the system of simplified parameters. Therefore, the research on the same problem from the aspect of using system of complicated parameters is expected if it is possible and the research results shall be compared with each other.