A Study On The Replacement Rate Level And Policy Simulation Of Rural Social Pension

In recent years, social endowment insurance system, as an important part of social security system, covering both urban and rural residents, has become the government’s attention. The rural social endowment insurance system, as a weak link, gets especial attention.In this paper, the use of social pension replacement rate reflects the social endowment insurance pillar on the individual’s social pension security level. It is a crucial relative index supporting the new rural endowment insurance system and endowment insurance system of urban and rural residents in long-term longitudinal actuarial balance, and the study of moderate rural social endowment insurance level is an important scientific problem. As a response to "full coverage, the basic, multi-level and sustainable" principle put forward by the party’s eighteen cogress, this paper will take different responsibility sharing mechanism among "personal-family-government", and analyse moderate social pension replacement rate in static and dynamic mechanics. This article mainly uses the target replacement target and average income replacement rate to analyse and compare the social pension pillar’s target and current situation.Rural social pension replacement rate reflects the rural social endowment insurance pillar on the individual’s social pension security level, which is able to measure relative index stage of old-age security level in the different economic development level. This paper is divided into five parts. The first part, in the overall context of urban and rural areas, the rural social insurance system and the rural pension replacement rate level and the theoretical study and literature review based on the analysis of different pension liabilities,"personal--family--the government "sharing the pension replacement rate, clear concept, and to seek China’s rural social pension replacement rate and the basis for the adjustment of and target. The second part is take the new agricultural insurance system as an example, basic pension substitution rate and individual account pension substitution rate, analysis of China’s rural social pension replacement rate status. The third part starts from the perspective of demand conditions and supply conditions, which combined with the income, consumption expenditure, population, life expectancy, yield and other parameters, the influence on multiple objective constraint value construction under the social pension replacement rate factor cross interaction theory model. From the influence of social pension replacement rate of many factors in rural areas, the paper points out the main factors, and construct China’s rural pension replacement rate index system. The fourth part is in the framework of rural and urban conservation system, combined with the aging of the rural population, the development of urbanization and economic development trend in different rural pension level, the relationship between the burden of dynamic simulation of2014-2050years of individual farmers, governments at all levels of financial change. The fifth part puts forward the suitable replacement rate of the feasibility of the program, and in the perspective of integrating rural and urban development, to put forward the policy recommendations to improve the rural social endowment insurance system and the existing urban and rural residents’ social insurance system.Through the research, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First, the actual rural social pension replacement rate is low in general. There is a big gap between urban and rural areas. The basic pension replacement rate level showes large regional differences and differences between groups, for lower income of rural residents, the basic pension replacement is higher;Second, the basic pension replacement rate of new rural endowment insurance system is lower than the towns’. In the unchanging situation of absolute basic pension replacement rate, with the per capita net income of farmers increasing, the basic pension replacement rate is declining. Adjusting and improving the level of basic pension and personal contribution, will raise relative level of pension;Third, the rural social pension replacement rate level is constrained by multiple supply targets. Under different levels of the basic life needs, the change rate is different. In the present stage, it should still have to rely on the three parties "individuals, families and the government" to achieve the first level of the most basic survival demand level. Fourth, from the reasonable rural social pension demand level, the average target replacement rate covers the difference among different income households’ pension demand replacement rate, it is suggested to take middle-income households’ target replacement rate level of demand as a reasonable level.Fifth, at the present stage, the lower limit value of the reasonable rural pension target replacement rate of demand level, can begin from the estimation of the most basic survival demand rate level of middle-income households’target replacement rate calculated by cash, slowly rising to the most basic survival needs include non cash demand, while the upper limit value must not exceed the basic total life needs.Sixth, under the current new rural endowment insurance system, the overall replacement rate is low. It should redecide the relevant adjustment month level, local government subsidies, and incentive policy parameters rules.Finally, according to the problems found in the study, specific policy recommendations are put forward, which could let the rural social pension level can meet the basic needs of the peasants’lives, and not beyond the affordability of their abilities to pay and government financial abilities, help to break the different mechanisms of urban and rural areas and balancing urban and rural development.