The Research On The Scale Controlling And Layout Evaluation Of The Iron And Steel Industry

Iron and steel industry is the leading industry of industrialization and is of strong industrial drive and wide influence. Its upstream industries are iron ore, coke, electricity, transportation, electrical and mechanical equipment etc.; and its downstream are automobile manufacturing, shipbuilding, construction, transportation and other important industries. Iron and steel industry is in the middle of the industrial chain and plays an important role in boosting national industrialization. China’s iron and steel industry has made great achievements though, it’s now facing overcapacity, as well as other serious problems including industrial development too extensive and irrational industrial layout. At present, China has entered an important stage in the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, It is imperative for the iron and steel industry to eliminate excess compression backward production capacity, reduce logistics costs and the continued economic use of foreign high-quality iron ore resources targeted to optimize the industrial layout adjustment. This dissertation will study theoretical issues related to the control of the iron and steel industry scale and optimization of the industrial layout from aspects including the industry life cycle, industry concentration, input and output ripple effect and ways to optimize the industrial layout etc. Conclusions can provide some reference and theoretical support for the country to develop the iron and steel industry development planning and policies. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) The dissertation makes an analysis of the background for control of China iron and steel industry scale and industrial layout optimization. On the basis of summarizing the status quo of the system development of China’s iron steel industry, this dissertation summed that the industry is facing overcapacity, as well as other serious problems including industrial development too extensive and irrational industrial layout. Also, this dissertation mainly studied the main performance, the development of the law and causes of overcapacity, industrial inverse centralization and steel production and marketing inverse spatial decreased concentration and the coupling reduces. (2) This dissertation explores the industrial concentration associated methods and criterion issue, so that the relevant methods and drawn conclusions can be more adapted to the specific reality of Chinese iron and steel industry. Through comparative study of Chinese and foreign major steel-producing countries in the iron and steel industry development law, life cycle stage, market size and size of those leading enterprises, it was found that the industrial inverse centralization of China’s iron and steel industry is not a performance of industry structure deterioration, but a normal phenomenon in process of development. The industry concentration target of the iron and steel industry being set at50%and75%, we should not use CR4and CR8, which are common foreign criteria, but we should be used CR10and CR20. When in2020, the top four enterprises and the average size of the former eight enterprises in the the iron and steel industry should be45million tons and37million respectively.(3) The dissertation selects the output and apparent consumption of crude steel in years from1983to2012, uses of the Comperz curve fitting method to determine the life cycle stages the iron and steel industry is in and predicts the extremes of the crude steel production and consumption. For China’s crude steel production capacity, in the1983-2003period, it was between import periods or in the early growth period, and in the2004-2012periods it was in the late growth period; while for the apparent consumption of crude steel, in the1983-2006periods, it was between import periods or in the early growth period, and in the2007-2012periods it was in the late growth period. According to this trend, China’s crude steel production will reach1.66billion tons in2055extreme and the crude steel apparent consumption will be about880million tons in2030to reach extremes.(4) This dissertation simulates the reduced ripple effect and energy saving effect of the Hebei iron and steel industry scale. Based on input-output theory Leontief inverse matrix calculation, we calculated the ripple effect to other industrial sectors of the iron and steel industry in Hebei Province. Also, based on statistical data and related literature over the years analyzed the level of energy consumption and pollutant emissions major energy-consuming industries in Hebei Province, we can see that the influence coefficient of the steel industry was1.264in Hebei province; and the sensitivity coefficient was3.285; the leading impact of its development on other industries and the effects stimulated by other industries development were very obvious; to plus, the Hebei iron and steel industry also has ripple effect which is relatively obvious to other heavy industries of all kinds; when the output value of the steel industry decreased by20%, the industrial output value and energy consumption would decreased by about15%, the emissions of CO2and the major air pollutants would decreased by8%-29%. Compression helps to eliminate both the size of the iron and steel industry overcapacity and it helps reverse the Hebei structure constant heavy trend. The elimination of backward production capacity and slove environmental pollution have become two major problems need to give priority to the development of Hebei Province, while reducing the size of the iron and steel industry should be a key step and an important measure to solve two problems in Hebei Province.(5) This dissertation establishes indicator system from the market consumption capacity, human capital resources, natural resources, environmental protection, transport conditions and other aspects of the original steel production base, and it studies the Suitability Evaluation of industrial layout of the industry using factor analysis and cluster analysis of44cities around the Bohai Sea. The study found that from the perspective of Suitability Evaluation the iron and steel industry, the44cities can be divided into six zones including the advantage area, the high potential area, the good potential area, the general area, the poor areas and very poor area. There are10cities in the field of the advantage area, the high potential area and the good potential area, and a region of about91,800square kilometers are comparatively appropriate for layout of iron and steel enterprises; while the poor and very poor area have21cities and three are approximately285,100square kilometers where are quite unsuitable for the layout of iron and steel enterprises. In2012around the Bohai Sea, there are still nearly a third of the iron and steel industry (1,784enterprises), a quarter of crude steel production capacity (about82.78million tons) are located in poor and very poor areas, and this irrational layout situation is in an urgent need for improvement.