The Analysis Of The Industrial Concentration Of The Chinese Steel Industry

The concentration degree of the steel industry is very low in China, which has been seen as a serious problem in urgent need of being resolved. The steel industry is characterized as an industry which has significant scale efficiency. According to the above argues, increasing the degree of industrial concentration, establishing large and super-large size enterprises have been important tasks in regulatory policies on the steel industry in China, which also has significant influences on the Chinese steel industry. These issues are reexamined, analyzed and commented in this thesis.Compared to the method which uses the concentration degrees of the steel industry in the United States, Japan and South Korea, etc. as criteria, the scale of the steel industry, the distribution and scale limitation of steel enterprises have been studied dynamically to analyze the rational status and trends of the Chinese steel industry from the definition of degree of industrial concentration. The conclusion is arrived at that the concentration degree of the Chinese steel industry is at a very low level, which is rational and mainly determined by the scale of the entire industry in China. The concentration degree of the Chinese steel industry can't reach the levels of that like the United States, Japan and South Korea, etc. The concentration degree of the Chinese steel industry measured by the top 5 companies will remain low and even decrease before the scale of the Chinese steel industry comes to the summit, nearly 2041~2050. From then on, it will increase continually, but wouldn't be very high.Although China has become a net exporter of steel from a net importer, the production of crude steel is rising by a large amount from a high base every year since 2001, the scale of the Chinese steel market does not reach the summit and is still growing as the growth of Chinese economy and downstream industries which consume steel. Apparent crude steel use per capita is used to forecast the summit value and its emerging time of the Chinese steel industry. The index of apparent crude steel use per capita is decomposed into two parts including domestic demand and foreign demand by the structure of international trade and is valued for China referring to its values of the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, France and Germany. The index of the intensity of crude steel consumption with GDP is used to forecast the mid-term scale of the Chinese steel industry. The short-term scale of the Chinese steel industry is predicted by an econometric regression model with the indices of industrialization and urbanization and the method of using the intensity of crude steel consumption with GDP. With reference to the developing processes of the steel industry in the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan, the vision of the Chinese steel industry in the future is depicted with respect to its scale and share in the world steel industry in this thesis.The properties of scale and scale efficiency of steel firms are summarized by analyzing the famous steel companies of the world. In the Chinese steel industry, the trends of scale limitation of firms and distribution of different scale firms in the future are concluded by considering the above factors , the special growth history of Chinese steel firms and market circumstances in China.The policy of developing steel industry and the blueprint for the adjustment and revitalization of the steel industry which were issued by the State Council are analyzed and commented based on the above analyses of the concentration degree, the market scale, the scale and distribution of firms in the steel industry. Advices are given on regulating polices and developing strategies of steel firms in the Chinese steel industry.