Research On Optimization Model And Method Of Distributed Generation Investment Strategy

In recent years, with the intensification of energy and environmental crisis and the development of smart grid, distributed generation attracted world-wide attention as its environmental friendly, efficient and flexible feature, incoporating with a large number of distributed generation has become an important symbol of low-carbon and smart power systems. This article takes a research on investment promotion strategy, investment inducement strategy and investment behavior selection strategy of distributed generation from regulators and implementor perspectives, through the establishment of the corresponding optimization models and methods, and proposes some recommendations about optimal investment strategy, which has a great importance on the promotion of distributed generation investment, and the realization of economic and social benefit in the investment process of distributed generation.First of all, this paper defines the correlated concepts of DG and its investment strategy; second, from the perspective of regulators, analyze distributed generation investment policy environment, distributed generation investment promotion strategy is proposed on the basis of economic and social benefit equilibrium, and the applicability of this strategy is discussed under different regulation policies; third, from the perspective of regulators, clean generation technology selection strategy of DG investment is proposed based on non-pollution subsidies and emission constraints, multi-objective planning method is used, and different objective functions(cost and subsidy function) are taken into account, to obain a series of plan schemes solutions which satisfy the Pareto optimal(in the Pareto solution set, optimal plan scheme can be obtained by Monte Carlo simulation), and consider a kind of regulation measure based on emission constraints, the feasibility of joint use for incentive and regulation measure is tested in two cases of system-wide and buses emission constraints; forth, from the perspective of investment implementors, based on the analysis of the random fluctuation of energy prices, and through the comparison between direct investment strategy and the timing investment strategy, distributed generation investor behavior selection strategy is proposed based on real options model, three practical examples about gas DG expansion investment and CHP upgrading are introduced to test the feasibility of this strategy; fifth, from the perspective of investment implementors, based on the analysis of the stochastic volatility of electricity market price, optimize distributed generation investment timing and capacity choices, and then optimal investment behavior selection strategy is given, the feasibility of this strategy is tested through a distributed wind turbine example.The results show that the implementation of price discrimination based on deep charges scheme can better take into account the positive externalities of DG investment, provide investors with long-term investment signals, and effectively promote DG investment; the introduction of emission constraints is effective to incentive the application of clean distributed generation technology, the widely application of clean distributed generation technology can achieved by developping a more stringent emission constraints; when the energy prices volatility is relatively small, timing investment strategy is superior to direct investment strategy in the cases of DG capacity investment and combined heat and power(CHP) investment, and in the case of DG and CHP co-investment, strategy2(based on the initial investment in a DG-HX system, upgrade the capacity of the system when decreases in the price of natural gas is large enough) in an optimum when small fluctuations in energy prices, strategy4(based on the initial investment in a DG-HX system, increase system capacity or upgrade the CHP when the natural gas price range is relatively large) is an optimum when a larger price fluctuations in energy prices; in the situation that the electricity market price fluctuations is relatively small, the best investment strategy is to make a investment when the price is much higher than the net present value of equilibrium price, and investors need to invest on units with different capacities in different price range to achieve the maximum option value, and in the situation that market price fluctuations is large, the large-scale projects are of great investment opportunities value, so when the largest project is the optimal investment option, then the investment was optimal.