Study On Evaluation Of Forest Park Tourism Carrying Capacity Base On Visitors’ Experience

Tourism carrying capacity is an important tool as the core of modern forest park management framework to achieve sustainable use of resources. However, it towards to ensure the effectiveness of tourists travel experience, there is still a lack of scientific and effective evaluation methods about carrying capacity, especially on determining the carrying capacity evaluation criteria that has been controversy. Accordingly, this dissertation in teams of the theoretical approach, which combine the traditional concept of carrying capacity with improved the basic theory of LAC. In order to develop evaluation criteria from three angles, which respectively use tourists experience utility, environmental acceptance probability, expected demand to travel that portray the objective environmental conditions level from tourists perceive indirectly, finally get the results about the state of environment as an evaluation of tourism carrying capacity with observing the object. The evaluating proceeding of environmental carrying capacity including four parts, the best and the worst condition, an acceptable condition and unacceptable condition. In addition, take into account most studies of the tourism carrying capacity that focus on largest tourist capacity under current scenic condition, while ignoring some factors that may affect the carrying capacity of the environment. Therefore, this dissertation start from the tourists’context-aware, at the same time explore the measurement methods of carrying capacity. The research focuses on the environmental affecting factors of marginal changes to the carrying capacity, hope to explain the problem of the institute of tourism carrying capacity from tourists effectiveness and decision angle. The research method not only enriches the research content and research perspective of tourism carrying capacity, but also provides a theoretical basis for the administration on improving scenic carrying capacity.The main contents are as follows:(1) Using cost-benefit theory deduced evaluation criteria of carrying capacity, get the net utility value and utility contribution value of various environmental attributes from visitors’ experience by random utility function and experimental methods, finally obtain the corresponding carrying status of environmental attributes (sets). The results show that:Firstly, the "vegetation coverage" and " degree of cultural landscape protection " improvement play a positive influence for visitors’experience utility, the "The amount of waste" and "congestion" deterioration play a negative influence for visitors’experience utility. Tourists have the most sensitive on the "crowding"; Secondly, according to the analysis on environmental attributes of marginal value contribution, carrying capacity of "vegetation coverage" is between60%to75%, carrying capacity of " The amount of waste " between6-12pieces/200m, carrying capacity of "Congestion" is between20to30people/100m2, the changes in other environmental attributes may make utilization threshold moves; Finally, according to the carrying capacity criteria and utility contribution value of the various environmental attributes, we can get the state case of25potential environmental attribute sets, including the best and the worst state, unacceptable and acceptable state, and the state closest to carrying capacity.(2) According to tourists’selection probabilities and odd radio on the environment condition obtain carrying capacity evaluation criteria, and then get the tourists crowding acceptance probability by the conditional Logit model and odd radio, in term of the virtual environment state and the status quo, in further of getting environment unacceptable state and usage threshold. The results show that:firstly, according to the degree of discrete in probability function fitting curve, it is relatively obvious affection for using threshold from "the amount of waste" and "the degree of Monuments protection" changes; Secondly, when the degree of congestion more than20people/100m2, tourists’refusal probability would drop dramatically to90%or more less, and improving of the environment will impact on the using threshold become extremely weak; finally, get carrying cases of various environmental attributes from odd radio, including an acceptable state, unacceptable state, and weak unacceptable state.(3) Based on travel demand theory determine tourism carrying capacity standards of unacceptable state, using the joint approach of stated and revealed preference, and apply pooled models and pseudo-panel count model to obtain tourism demand function on virtual state, moreover, determine which the environment state is unacceptable. The results show that:firstly, given the results from the fixed effects of negative binomial model estimation,"vegetation cover" improvement,"the amount of waste" and " degree of cultural landscape protection " attribute have a significant positive impact on the number of trips, increase the amount of waste is expected to maximum negatively marginal affect the demand for travel; secondly, in contrast cultural landscape protection and congestion are not very sensitive to the changes of tourists in the analysis of this model; finally, the arithmetic mean of the trips number, the average t-test, conditional expectation, three standard travel demand is expected to make a comparison, obtained an unacceptable environmental attributes set for each standard.