| “ Food is the paramount necessity of the people ”. Food safety was related to everyone including the government,enterprise and consumer. Fluctuations in price related to the level of consumption,thereby affecting the welfare of consumers. Especially unusual price fluctuations directly affected the normal life of the residents,especially low-income people,bringing a lot of impact on food safety supervision. With China’s accession to WTO, fluctuations in food prices was frequent. Therefore, discussing periodicity,seasonality and uncertainty of price volatility,studying the causes of food price volatility and analyzing the behavior of food safety regulatory processes and regulatory mechanisms had important significance to stabilize food price, guarantee the living standards of residents,maintain macroeconomic stability,ensure food security.The paper discussed the characteristics and causes of food price volatility since 2000 and mechanisms of food safety supervision based on domestic and foreign research reviews,the equilibrium price theory,game theory and public goods theory.(1)The Census-X12 was used to exclude seasonal ingredients,and then HP filtering method was used to decompose cycle curve,the trend curve and random curve based on data from January 2000 to December 2015. The study found that food price had obvious seasonality between 2000 and 2015.The seasonal factor was the biggest in February with the value of 1.043.The seasonal factor was the smallest in July with the value of0.973.There was a clear upward trend in food price from 2000 to 2015.Trend curve and t met 4-order polynomial equation. The food price appeared five cycles between 2000 and2015, It had undergone significant change from relatively stable to small amplitude fluctuation,rapid fluctuation,finally to slightly change. Random curve in the price was more and more obvious,and the impact of uncertainty factors on food prices was more and more big.(2)Many factors were bring into the model and correlation analysis and stepwise regression method were used to identify the factors significantly affect food price volatility.The correlation analysis showed that descending order was agricultural production costs(CPI)> money supply(M2)> exchange rate(REER)> income of urban residents(INCOME)> International Food Prices(Ifoodprice)> international oil prices(OIL) in accordance with the absolute value of the correlation coefficient. The results of forward-stepwise regression method identified that international food prices,international oil prices,the cost of agricultural production and the money supply were major factors resulting in food price fluctuations,mainly due to domestic food price volatility.The main reason for domestic food price volatility was from the supply side. The order of contribution for domestic food price was agricultural production costs(X3) > moneysupply(X5) > international agricultural prices(X1) > international oil prices(X2). If agricultural production costs increased by 1%,domestic food prices rose 0.442%;If money supply increased by 1%,domestic food prices rose 0.398%;If international food prices increased by 1%,domestic food prices rose 0.281%.(3)In terms of the game between the main fields of food safety,the game model between government regulators and food companies,between food production enterprise and food production enterprise,food producers and consumers were constructed to analyse the behavior of every subject in the process of food safety supervision and regulation mechanism. The results showed that there were two equilibriums between businesses and consumers. Consumers chose not to purchase if they thought the food was substandard,and the optimal strategy was not producing. The optimal strategy was to produce substandard products business if consumers chose to buy random. The probability for production safe food by Food production enterprises was inversely proportional to regulatory costs. That was the higher cost of food companies to detect will result in lower detection frequency regulation and lower regulatory will, then companies tended to produce more insecure food. The more cost savings,the more the probability of detection.The more punishment of the unsafe food production, the lower the probability of the regulation... |
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