The Spillover Effect And Competition Effect On Import Trade Growth Of China’s Manufacturing Industry

The development of economic globalization makes the connection between countries increasingly close, resulting in the prosperous development of international trade in recent years, China’s import and export trade obtained fast development recently, especially according to WTO in 2013, China’s total amount of trade in goods is 416 million $, of which the exports 221 million $, imports 195 million $, and it exceeds USA to be the world’s largest trade in goods. The import trade development is mainly for improving the structure and quality of production factors to promote the economy’s potential growth. The effect of import trade on economic growth and the effect analysis of import trade should get attention, therefore this article analyzes the spillover effect and competition effect of import trade mainly from the Chinese 16 manufacturing industry level. The article is divided into the following several parts:Chapter 1 introduces the significance of selected topic, the definition of related concepts and the research design.Chapter 2 reviews and summaries the research achievement of related experts and scholars from the theoretical and empirical level to the import trade, the influence factors of import trade growth, the relationship between import trade and economic growth, the spillover effect and competition effect of import trade on domestic economy.Chapter 3 analyses the import trade growth and structure change between 1995 and 2012 in terms of the changes in import trade mode, import commodity structure, commodity price and import sources. It concludes that the chief reason for the increase in China’s imports of goods trade is that, the general trade imports increases from the import trade mode, mainly primary products and capital goods grows from the import commodity structure, in addition, it has a lot to the rise of international commodity prices in recent years, Chinese manufacturing import structure is changing from manufactured goods to the primary products and manufactured goods, with the development of China’s industrial economy, the primary products and machinery and equipment will always be the important imported varieties.Chapter 4 gives the empirical analysis to the influence factors of China’s import trade growth with the improved trade gravity model from the aspects of national economic development level, citizen’s income level and demand preference, FDI, export trade, exchange rates, the international division, distance, bilateral trade cost, economic institutional factors in manufacturing industry between 1995 and 2010. The article selected bilateral import trade value from 42 trades partners which includes 19 developing countries and 23 developed countries and areas that has a larger proportion of the import to China. it also divides China’s manufacturing into 16 industries according to the ISIC Revision3. Then it concludes that through panel data empirical analysis national economic development level, people’s income level, export trade, the international division and bilateral trade cost is the key factors of China’s manufacturing import trade growth.Chapter 5 analysis the promoting effect of import trade to economic growth using the panel data of China’s manufacturing industries from 1995 to 2010. The measured variables of economic growth is China’s manufacturing output level and the wages of the workers, it is concluded that import trade can promote the growth of output and worker wages of China’s manufacturing industries, and China’s economic growth can significantly promote the import and export level.Chapter 6 makes empirical analysis of the spillover effect of import trade. The research object is the R&D data and trade data between 13 developed countries and areas and 13 developing countries that has a large proportion in China’s import trade, it uses the DEA method to measure the total factor productivity, and decomposes the TFP to technical progress and technical efficiency change, at the same time, the article references CH(1997) and Schiff and Wang(2002) measurement of econometric model and divides the foreign R&D level into two kinds, namely the North- foreign R&D and South- foreign R&D. It obtains that through international trade, in addition to the R&D capital of developed countries and areas significantly promotes the total factor productivity growth and technology progress in China, the R&D capital of developing countries also significantly promotes the total factor productivity growth and technology progress in China, but the R&D capital of developed countries and areas and developing countries hinders the enhancement of the technology efficiency.Chapter 7 analysis the competition effect of import trade. It obtains the measurement equation of import competition using extended C-D production function, and concludes that China’s import competition of manufacturing industry has a significant role in promoting on industry productivity levels through panel data.Chapter 8 puts forward policy suggestions to economic growth of import trade. Through the analysis concludes that we should make further development of general trade imports; optimize the goods import structure; optimize the structure of processing trade and enhance the competitiveness of the international division; reduce the bilateral trade cost;improve the income level and consumption demand; promote the development of export trade; increasing R&D input and improve the technology spillover effect; make full use of the competition effect of import trade.