Study On Technology Spillover Effect Of Import Trade Based On Absorptive Capacity

In 2014,President Xi Jinping first proposed the concept of the “new normal” economy,placing technological innovation in an important strategic development position.Focusing on this topic and combining with the reality of China as a developing trading country,how to fully and effectively utilize the technology diffusion and transfer of foreign trade to realize the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure is a major subject worthy of academic research.Based on that,this paper studies the technology spillover effect of import trade based on absorptive capacity and the threshold regression model.This paper is divided into six parts: the first part is the introduction of the paper.In the second part is about the mechanism of the technology spillover effect of import trade,including a literature review of the mechanisms of research methods,technology spillover effects of import trade,and absorptive capacity.In the third part,the analysis of the present status of the technology spillover effect of China's import trade is mainly on the present status of the import trade development and absorption capacity of various provinces and cities in China,and the analysis of the current status of the development of import trade between China and major trading countries including the United States,Japan,Germany,South Korea,France,Russia,the United Kingdom,and Brazil.In the fourth part is about the empirical analysis of the technology spillover effect of import trade.The paper uses Chinese economy panel data from year 2000 to year 2016 and combines LP model with the threshold regression model to conduct empirical research.The research shows that: First,human capital and R&D investment as an absorptive capacity have a significant single threshold effect on the technical spillover of import trade.When an area's absorptive capacity does not cross the threshold,the increase in absorptive capacity will significantly promote the technical spillover effect of import trade in the region.Local technological development depends on the absorption,imitation,and innovation of foreign technology;when absorption capacity crosses the threshold,the increase in absorptive capacity will significantly curb the technical spillover effect of import trade in the region,and this suppression effect will be stronger than the promotion effect when the threshold has not been crossed.The local technological development will gradually get rid of dependence on foreign technology and technology development mode will turn to independent innovation mode;Second,China's overall human capital and R&D investment remain to be developed,and most provinces and cities do not have the threshold for crossing the threshold within a short period of time.The fifth section aims at the empirical results and proposes policy recommendations on how to promote local technology development in provinces and cities that cross human capital and R&D investment thresholds.The sixth part is about conclusions and future prospects,summarizing the results of the research in this paper,and proposes perfect methods and ideas for the deficiencies and defects in the research process of this paper,and further proposes future research directions.