The Research Of Spillover Effect Of Intermediate Import Trade Among "The Belt And Road" Countries

With the gradual formation of the system of global value chain division of labor,the proportion of intermediate trade in global trade becomes higher.Especially for developing countries,intermediate trade has become one of the important research directions in the field of international trade.In addition,globalization has accelerated the pace of technological innovation and technology diffusion.Since most of the world's R&D activities occur in only a few industrialized countries,domestic productivity growth in most countries depends mainly on foreign technology diffusion.Therefore,it is very important to investigate the technology spillover effect of intermediate import trade and calculate its size.Based on the research background of "The Belt and Road" development strategy,this paper assumes that a country's economic growth depends not only on its own technological innovation but also on foreign investment in technological research and development.We put the endogenous economic growth model(Romer,1990)under the "Belt and Road" open economy to carry on the analysis.Secondly,according to the criterion of minimum aggregate deviation,the technology spillover stock of import trade of intermediate goods calculated by three weighting methods is compared and analyzed.Finally,based on the panel data of 27 sample countries along the "Belt and Road" route from 1998 to 2014,this paper estimates all the sample countries along the "Belt and Road" with the systematic GMM method.The impact of technology spillovers on a country's economic growth in European countries along the route and in Asian countries along the route mainly draws the following conclusions:(?)This paper calculates the import technology spillover stock of intermediate products weighted by LP,CH and NEW by using the data of 23 EU countries before and after the summary,and compares and analyzes the aggregate deviation caused by the three weights.It is found that the result of NEW weighting is not as small as that of Kwark and Shyn(2006),but it is found that LP weighted method(Lichtenberg and Pottelsberghe de la Potterie,1998 is superior to the other two methods.(?)As far as domestic R&D investment,it is found that human capital has become the leading force in the economic development of the "Belt and Road" country,and its promoting effect on the domestic productivity of the countries along the route is 0.12%~0.57%.In particular,the technological gap and the domestic R&D capital stock become the important factors affecting the economic development of "Belt and Road" Asian countries and European countries,respectively.Thus,it can be found that the "Belt and Road" European countries mainly rely on their own capital accumulation for technological innovation and productivity improvement,while the "Belt and Road" Asian countries are slow to develop due to technological backwardness and other reasons.Therefore,it cannot rely entirely on domestic capital for technological creation,but also rely on the development experience of other developed countries and advanced technology.(?)As far as international technology spillover channels,the technology spillover of intermediate import trade has became an important development force of countries along the "Belt and Road" route.Secondly,although human capital has directly promoted the economic growth of the countries,in the process of absorbing,imitating and digesting foreign technology spillovers,foreign technology spillover cannot be transformed into domestic innovation investment because of the low quality of the labor force,which indirectly hinders the improvement of domestic productivity.Finally,the technology gap has two different effects for countries to absorb foreign technology spillovers: the European countries along the route have the " advantage of backwardness" effect,that is,the larger the technology gap,the more conducive to the realization of technology spillover;Asian countries,have a "persistent backwardness" effect,that is,the less technologically advanced countries are,the less capable they are to absorb,imitate and digest advanced foreign technology.