Non-profit Government Investment Project Decision-Making Model Research Based On Group Decision Theory

Non-profit government investment projects (NGIP), which need the huge investment, have strong public benefit and without profit, play an important role in the economic and social development of the regions or the entire country. However, due to the complex of NGIP, it is difficult for the government to make the scientific, reasonable and fair NGIP plan alone. The high NGIP decision-making mistakes ratio cause the great waste of state assets, the corruption of officials and then make the discontent of citizens with the government. There are many reasons of NGIP decision-making mistakes, but the main reason is the lack of public participation in the NGIP decision-making process. So in this dissertation, we will discuss the NGIP decision problem in the public participation environment based on the group decision theory.Through the ways of questionnaire, case study and field research, the current situation of NGIP decision can be known. And then based on the analysis of the latest researches of multi-attributes decision making (MADM) method, public participation and government decision making, we will establish the NGIP decision making model based on the MADM group decision methods in the public participation environment. According to the previous studies, there are still some problems, namely, the decision information loss, the decision method selection, large public participation and public’s and experts’opinion trade-off. Hence the main contents include four aspects:(1) There are two problems in the expert decision process:first is the expert decision information loss problem, the experts cannot express their actual opinions by the current evaluation scoring method; the other is the decision method selecting problem, different decision method may have different decision result in sometime. Hence in this dissertation, the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers replace the real values to solve the decision information loss problem. For the decision method selecting problem, we do not want to study a way to select the best method, but use the social choice method to aggregate the different decision results to be a final result. Based on the above research contents, the NGIP expert group decision model is established.(2) The first problem of public participation in the NGIP decision process is how to divide the public group by their preference vectors in order to know the public opinions better. In this dissertation, the Adaptive Affinity Propagation (AP) clustering algorithm is used to cluster the public group, the advantage of this clustering algorithm is that it finds the optimal clustering number by itself. When the public is to evaluate the single NGIP plan, in order to let the government know the public opinions clearly, the conception of government exception is introduced. Through the similarity degree of government expected preference vectors and the public preference vectors, the deviation of government and public’s opinions are checked in order to offer the references for the government to lead the public opinions. When the public is to evaluate the multi NGIP plan, we will use the ranking relationships of NGIP alternative plans to solve the dimensionality reduction problem of three dimensional decision matrixes in order to cluster the public group by clustering algorithm. Final, based on the above research contents, the NGIP public group decision model is established.(3) The decision making power distribution is the other problem when public participant into the NGIP decision process and it is the weights setting problem in the MADM environment. Due to there are communications between the experts and public group, in order to reflect these communication conditions well, we will use the interactive group decision model to solve the weight setting problems of NGIP decision model, include the weights among experts, the weights between experts and public groups and the weights of evaluation criteria. Then based on the above researches and entropy theory, the NGIP interactive group model is established.(4) Through the analysis of the types and manners of the NGIP public participation, according to the aims of public participation, we will study the application scenarios of NGIP expert group decision model, NGIP public group decision model and NGIP interactive decision model respectively at the backgrounds of obtaining NGIP decision information, obtain the public wisdom and obtaining the public support. Then we will discuss the application of each scenario at each step of NGIP decision process.