Research On Investment Decision Of PPP Project Based On Trigonometric Intuitionistic Fuzzy Real Options

Due to uncertainties in the development of PPP projects,there is a need for a method that can effectively evaluate PPP project investment decisions.The method to improve the PPP project investment decision-making and make a reasonable assessment of the project value is the focus of the research in this area.In reality,it is difficult for decision makers to make accurate judgments in the face of various uncertainties.The influence of decision-makers' hesitation and decision-making subject's risk preference on decision-making results cannot be ignored.This thesis analyzes the related literatures and finds the limitations of the fuzzy real options approach in existing research.By analyzing the characteristics of PPP project investment decision-making and the characteristics of real options approach,this thesis constructs a triangle intuitionistic fuzzy real option investment decision-making model,and applies the model to analyze the investment value of PPP project,and then provides a reference for investors' decision-making through the results of the model.Based on the ideas above,the research content of this thesis is mainly divided into the following three parts.First of all,through the analysis of the research background and the combing of existing literature,this part analyzes the shortcomings in the investment decision-making methods of PPP projects in the existing research,and the shortcomings of real options-related theories.Then it puts forward the necessity of improving the existing PPP real options investment decision method.Secondly,this part analyzes the formation mechanism of the investment value of PPP project,and compares and selects the methods of modeling.Through the analysis of the principle of real options,this thesis further proposes the basic assumptions of the model construction and analysis of the influencing factors,and combines the triangle intuitionistic fuzzy theory with the real options theory to construct the triangle intuitionistic fuzzy real option model.Finally,this part analyzes the feasibility of the model by analyzing case studies of a PPP project in a small town in A city.In the case,the traditional NPV method,fuzzy real option,and triangular intuitionistic fuzzy real option are used for quantitative analysis and comparison respectively,which verifies the research results of this paper.The results show that the triangle intuitionistic fuzzy real option method combines the hesitant degree of decision makers and the risk preference of decision-makers,and can make a more reasonable assessment of project investment value and guide investment decision-making.The model presented in this paper has obvious advantages over the other two methods,and it also validates the practical application value of the model built in this paper.