Analysis On The Fluctuation Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Garlic In China

China is not only a big producer of garlic,but also a big consumer of garlic and a big exporter.Garlic production,scale and planting area rank first in the world.Under the background of the structural reform of the agricultural supply side,garlic has the potential for deep processing,high value-added potential,broad market development prospects,and diversified product levels.It will play a role in cultivating new kinetic energy for rural development,boosting agricultural efficiency,increasing farmers' income,and increasing rural environment.The important role.In recent years,price fluctuations such as “garlic oysters” and “garlic oysters” have occurred continuously,indicating that the degree of modernization of the garlic industry is still at a lower level,and the scale,standardization,branding,and information level of production are low.Excessive price fluctuations will not only adversely affect market equilibrium,but will also seriously damage the interests of garlic farmers and consumers.Therefore,by analyzing the fluctuation characteristics of garlic prices in China,we will examine the factors that influence the price fluctuations during the typical fluctuation cycle,and increase the stability of garlic prices in domestic and foreign markets,increase the export earnings of garlic,protect the income of farmers,and provide the government with decision-making basis.Play a major practical significance.Based on relevant theories and existing domestic and foreign research results,this article first selects monthly national wholesale garlic price data from the website of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China,and uses X-12 seasonal adjustment and HP filtering to decompose the monthly price series into seasonal components,random components,long-term trends,and periodic components are divided into 7 different volatility periods and the volatility characteristics of different periods are compared and analyzed;the monthly price data of garlic,the main producing province of agricultural price information network-agricultural price cloud,are selected to measure different masters.The synchronicity coefficient of the price fluctuations between the producing provinces.Secondly,from the perspective of the garlic industry background,the supply factors such as production conditions,inventory,and speculation in agricultural products,as well as demand factors in foreign markets,domesticconsumption,and processing conditions are summarized.Finally,in April 2009-October2011 and April 2015-December 2017,tap the influencing factors of the "Garlic Squatting" phenomenon in 2010 and 2016 for two typical cycles of fluctuations,and use factor analysis methods.The principal component regression method was used to analyze the influence of seven factors on the price fluctuation of garlic.The research shows that: garlic prices as a whole showed a wave-like upward trend,seasonal fluctuation characteristics are significant,and the price fluctuations in different cycles have different influencing factors.Unbalance of supply and demand is the most fundamental reason for garlic price fluctuations.Other market factors have accelerated the intensity of garlic price fluctuations in different periods of fluctuations.In 2010,the emergence of the "garlic-your-nephew" phenomenon came more from natural disasters and rising production costs.In the 2015-2016 fluctuation cycle,imbalances in supply and demand,substitution effects of onion prices,and inflation factors all had a significant impact on garlic price fluctuations.The innovation of this paper is: using X-12 seasonal adjustment and H-P filtering to empirically analyze the characteristics of garlic price fluctuations in China,and found that seasonal fluctuations in garlic prices are significant,the fluctuation range is getting smaller and smaller,every four years is a volatility cycle.This study uses case analysis to scale the time span to two typical cycles of April 2009-October 2011 and April2015-December 2017,using economic theory to influence the sharp fluctuations in garlic prices from a supply-demand perspective.The factors carry out empirical analysis and put forward policy recommendations for stabilizing garlic prices.