Research On Influential Factors Of Grain Security Based On Sustainable Agriculture Development In China

Grain security issue-one of the compelling global problems, has been considered as a globally focal point over the years. On account of it concerns national economy and people’s livelihood. Not only is it an important economic problem, but also a significant political issue. China is a developing country with a population of over 1.3 billions and it is guaranteed to reach 1.6 billions to the middle of this century. Furthermore, with a further boosting of the industrialization and urbanization, the cultivated land will be reduced, causing a hard situation for per capita cultivated land to reach the safety standard of 1.5 acres. In the meantime, along with the increasing of the population, it is difficult to change a status quo of food supply tension under present grain production level. We always pursued to maximize the total grain output influenced by an old concept of adequate food and clothing. People’s pursuit is a high output and a small tension between human & land at any costs including serious contamination and destruction to the ecological environment. These problems required us to realize food security based on a sustainable agriculture development. Sustainable development is an organic unification of present and future which takes both immediate interests and long-term interests. It goes with an eye to the persistence of society future development as well as laying emphasis on getting economic gains. Therefore developments can be endowed with infinite potential. Taken in this sense, we have to bring grain security into correspondence with sustainable development meanwhile combine grain security, effective utilization of the agriculture resources and the protection of ecological environment. To achieve this required us to set up a new grain security concept that the food security we pursued is not a momentary maximum output but an overall both practical and potential grain production capability in the long run.This article is to study grain security in our country in the perspective of sustainable agriculture development. First of all, a massy theoretical basis of proceeding the following analysis, setting up and consolidate a new grain security concept by retrospecting and systemizing domestic and overseas grain security literature on the basis of a clear background, purpose and significance of the research has been established. In the second place, to estimate grain security condition from the angle of food quantity balance through analyzing supply system, demand system and grain market system in supply-demand balance system. Then, to provide theoretical foundation for establishing a grain security evaluation index system in the perspective of sustainable agriculture development through analyzing influences that social development, agriculture economy, science and technology support, resource factors and environment condition these five factors did to grain security on a qualitative perspective based on the theory related to sustainable agriculture development and grain security. After that, reliability, effectiveness of the influences and influential effect that social development, agriculture economy, science and technology support, resource factors and environment condition did to grain security are validated through building structure equation model. At last, grain security evaluation index system has been established based on the research and analysis above. Grain security condition has been synthetically evaluated through factors analysis in our country and reached a conclusion along with some relevant policy suggestions as following:Chapter one:Introductory theory. Background, purpose and significance of grain security has been put forward from the angle of sustainable agriculture development in our country. To state study methods、 study content and innovation point of this article.Research ideas are very clear through technology roadmap.Chapter two:Overall reviews on research literature of grain security. domestic and overseas grain security literature has been retrospected and systemized in the perspective of the relation between sustainable development and grain security through analyzing grain security concept、influencing factors、 eveluation and grain supply and demand. A comment has been made to the domestic and overseas literature.Chapter three:Sustainable agriculture development and grain security. Sustainable agriculture development and grain security theory has been separately stated. A new grain security concept came into being by combining them and grain security under the precondition of sustainable agriculture development has been defined.Chapter four:The Supply-demand Balance Situation of Chinese Grain security. Through the analysis of grain production, consumption and market situation of our country, with per capita grain, self-sufficiency rate of grain and grain reserve rate three food safety key measures, it can be found in the current of our country grain security in a tight state of equilibrium. In the background of agricultural production resources in China faces a bottleneck, coupled with increasing population and industrialization and urbanization continue to push the grain rigid demand caused by increased food safety risk will increase the grain security situation is not optimistic.Chapter five:Analysis of the Impact of China’s Grain security from the Perspective of the Factors of Agricultural Sustainable Development. Food safety must be consistent with agricultural economy and social sustainable development, combined grain security safeguard and agricultural resources savings, effective utilization and protection of the ecological environment, and fully aware of science and technology in the important role of ensuring the safety of food. This chapter is divided into social development, agricultural economy, science and technology support, the elements of resources and environmental conditions in the five categories by the factors which influenced Chinese grain security, each category of factors to analyze the influence on grain security through some specific factors, which helps us more accurately from the perspective of sustainable development of agriculture to design a evaluation index system of grain security.Chapter six:Based on the sustainable development of agriculture, China’s food safety affecting factors structural equation model is. This chapter takes the structure equation model as the main research method, mainly verified the social development, the agricultural economy, science and technology support, resource elements and the state of the environment factors for affecting grain security reliability, validity and effect. The research results indicate that:the support of science and technology, resources, environmental conditions and agricultural economy is the key element to promote and guarantee the grain security. The support of science and technology play the biggest role in guaranteeing the grain security, resource factors is of the second importance only to the former, environmental conditions and agricultural economy also has some certain promoting effect on the food safety. In addition, social development has a negative impact on grain security, but a lesser extent.Chapter seven:Based on the sustainable development of agriculture, the evaluation of China’s grain security status. In the foundation of agricultural sustainable development theory and structural equation model, the evaluation index system of food safety which under the perspective of agricultural sustainable development is constructed. Through the factor analysis method for comprehensive evaluation on the grain security conditions in our country, we can be found that:grain security is affected and restricted by many elements, only combine the social development, the agricultural economy, science and technology support, resources and environmental factors together tightly, can we ensure the sustainable development of grain security. Lack of any element may influence its stability, thus causing food safety risk.Chapter eight:Conclusions and policy recommendations. Through analysis the above, draw the conclusion, put forward the policy suggestion that under the perspective of agricultural sustainable development to guarantee the grain security in China, and provide the reference to the introduction of policies for guaranteeing the grain security.In this paper, the research methods mainly include:First, the method of combining the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis; Second, the method of combining the normative analysis and empirical analysis; Third, the method of combining the macro analysis and micro analysis. In addition, also combines history with logic and model analysis method.Innovation points of this research include three aspects:first,under the perspective of food security,to define what is agricultural sustainable development and identify its main goals; Second, from the perspective of the sustainable development of agriculture, the factors affecting food security in China is divided into five categories:social development, the agricultural economy, science and technology support, resources and environment,which can make us design the evaluation index system of food security more accurate; Third, using the structural equation model to study and analyze our country’s food security problems, this itself is a kind of innovation.