Study On Regional Grain Supply-Demand Balance And Countermeasures In The Yangtze Riverside Area Of Jiangsu Province

China is a big developing country with a large population.Stabilizing and increasing grain production is an important national policy.As a typical developed province in the east part of China,Jiangsu has to face the problems that more and more farmland is used for non-farm purpose and the grain yield is decreasing,and the conflict between people and land is more and more intense,while it is developing fast. To make this area be a new increase polar in Jiangsu,it takes unbalance development of regional economy as its basic springboard,so that the riverside area can carry out the transfer of the manufacturing base which has higher effect.That can also accelerate the exaltation of the high and new technology industry along the Hu-Ning line,which will drive the development of the north Jiangsu too.But this stratagem may finally effect the situation of the area grain production and requirement.Because the development of the manufacturing industry and the accelerating of the progress of urbanization would need much land which lacks of,and the increase of work chance in the non-farm people,the change of the consumption frame would affect the dominance of the production of the grain and farming more deeply.The balance of the regional grain supply and requirement is an important precondition for national food safety.For this reason,we collected and coordinated a large number of statistical data,fieldwork and surveys of more than 2000 corporations to study this issue.Based on the analysis of the relationship between development of the area economy and the industrial structure,we built a series of models including change of population,newly added use of land,grain consumptions per capita.And then,according to these models,we set different development scenes to forecast and analyze the supply-demand system of riverside area in 2010 and 2020.The central research results were as follows:(1) The historical evolution and development trends of industrial structure in the Yangtze riverside area of Jiangsu ProvinceThere was certain regularity in the evolution of the industrial structure among the riverside cities.Firstly,the proportion of primary industry decreased year by year, while the level of non-agriculturalization economy improved gradually;secondly, with the 60 percent level,the secondary industry proportion made great influence on the regional economic development;thirdly,the output proportion improved steadily, with the tertiary industry gradually replacing of primary industry.Combining with the experiences in the developed countries and regions,the conclusion made by experts and scholars,the regional historical evolution of industrial structure and the regional industrial development strategy,we concluded that the proportion of the secondary industry would hover around the level of 60%for a period of time.(2) The grain consumption subsystemFrom the situation of regional population change we could see that the household registration population increased steadily,and the level of urbanization accelerated gradually as well,which would respectively reach 65%and 70%in 2010 and 2020. The econometric analysis showed that the per capita GDP had significant positive correlation with the proportion of external population in this area.The labor productivity was different in various sectors.Taking the riverside area of Jiangsu Province for example,we established a simulation model of population changes from the view of industry development.As for the per capita grain consumption,the urban residents per capita total grain consumption,in the one hand,the per capita grain consumption and the rural residents per capita gain consumption gradually declined,which experienced exponentiation function relationship with the economic development level(GDP per capita).On the other hand,the rural residents per capita total grain consumption fluctuated,but the change was not significant.Survey results showed that the average number of per capita consumption of the external population was 234.51 kg in the riverside area,a little higher than that of rural residents,while the per capita total grain consumption averaged 385.97 kg, higher than that of rural residents per capita.Evidently,when the rural labors transferred,their grain consumption increased as well.(3)The grain production subsystemDue to the impact of agricultural structure adjustment and farmland area shrank, the grain production of the riverside area had decreased,while the total grain yield of the Yangtze delta accouted for the whole province decreased from 58.44%in 1980 to 42.86%in 2005.The per capital grain was slightly higher than 300kg.It is lessening farmland,decreasing planting area,low grain output raise rate and pessimistic supply and demand state in area nearby,which made the supply and demand state grim.Cultivated land conversion was the main factor that influenced the grain production in the Yangtze riverside area of Jiangsu Province,which was effected by the demand of construction land based on manufacturing in Jiangsu.Focused on the transformation of the farmland area,combined with the data of investment,and also studied the character of the economical efficiency of different manufacturing industry, we analyzed the using efficiency of land,occupied by the 28 manufacturing industry; and then classified the land economical production into six categories:very high, higher,moderate,middle-lower,lower and very low.Basing on the industry-land demands hypothesis we established the farmland non-agricultualization simulating model.(4)The exploitation situational setting and grain production-demand systematic simulation in the Yangtze riverside area of Jiangsu ProvinceStarting from the speed of economic growth,and the industry development model,using the situational setting method to set the development situational in the Yangtze riverside area of Jiangsu Province,and combining with the former established stimulation model,we simulated the grain production-demand system of the along-river exploitation in the new situation in 2010 and 2020.The results indicated that the quicker the economic growth speed increased the more labor force the industry development was demanded and the more external population was demanded.At the same time,the farmland non-agriculture occupying was increased. The demand quantity of population and labor force and land use were different which for maintaining the along-river region economic development in different industrial development models.In all,the grain production-demand balance situation was not optimistic.①By 2010,if concerned with the grain consumption of the external population, and controlled the economic growth speed lower than 18%,the grain production-demand would be balance in riverside area.However,even if the economic growth speed was only 9%,the production-demand would not be balance at all.If we didn't concern with the grain consumption of the external population, ensuring the balance of grain total quantity was not difficult.②By 2020,if concerned with the grain consumption of the external population, the grain production-demand would not be balance if the economic growth speed was higher than 15%;If we didn't concern with the grain consumption of the external population,and control the growth speed lower than 15%,the balance of grain total quantity would come true.So in the along-river exploitation new situation,the policy goal for grain production-demand balance should be "basing on nearly balance of the grain production-demand for regional total population".The realizing of this goal was quite important for the grain security in along river region and in Jiangsu.(5)The countermeasure suggestions to assuring the grain supply-demand balance in the area along-river in Jiangsu①Based on the GIS technology,spatial autocorrelation analysis and genetic algorithms,the distribution optimization study of grain production areas along the River showed that,after the optimization,the grain output and planting benefits could be a seven-percent increase.Also,we studied the method and practice of space distribution optimization,and then put it to the implementation level.We concluded that could be good for the grain production,peasants' income and rural development in the riverside area.②Rice production was the most important in grain production.Improving the rice yield was an efficiency measure to ensure the supply and demand balance of rations in the riverside area of Jiangsu Province.The field experiments showed that machine transplanted rice saved labor and cost.The suitable value of Key Cultural Technique showed as:ⅰ) The appropriate sowing rate was 150～180 g per tray(1624 cm~2);ⅱ) Close planting with fewer seedlings in each cluster;ⅲ) Fertilizer for tillering to fertilizer for heading was 6 to 4.③Policy suggestions of the grain supply-demand balance in the riverside area of Jiangsu Province showed as:Firstly,protected and used farmland reasonably; secondly,scientific guided of population movements and promoted scientific and saving consumption;thirdly,speeded up accomplishing construction of cereal circulation system;fourthly,paid attention to agricultural sci-tech innovation and constructed the agricultural technology extension system;fifthly,increased the research and extension of mechanized planting mating technique.