International Grain Prices Fluctuations Impacts On China’s Grain Supply And Demand Balance

In1998-2013,the international grain prices were rising volatility as a whole,The fluctuation reached a high record in 2008.Since China’s accession to the WTO and the domestic grain prices and the balance between supply and demand in China will be affected the increasing degrees of the opening policy and internationalization of grain market,international grain prices by every means. In this background,Further study of international food price volatility’s influence on China’s grain supply and demand balance degree and the influence, ensuring food security in China is of great significance under the opening condition,and this is essence in this paper.Part2 analyzes the variation rule and characteristics of the international grain prices,then a variety of aspects including the international energy, supply and demand, global monetary and financial speculation,global agricultural trade,global agricultural policy which affect the international grain prices are addressed.Part3 analyzing the current situations of domestic production and demand, the import and export of grains as well as grain stocks.Part4 is theoretical analysis, pointing out that the import and export trade, the futures market, and the substitution effect is the international food prices on China’s grain supply and demand balance of main pathways.Part5 is the empirical analysis,using the sample of prices in1998—2013, the international market prices and the domestic grain supply and demand balance index were researched,To explore the correlation of international grain prices and the grain supply and demand balance in China.The research shows that the international grain prices and domestic grain supply and demand balance has long-term equilibrium relationship. This part firstly supposes that import and export trade mechanism, e futures market propagation mechanism and substitution effect are the transmission mechanism. After test and discussion, the results show that the international grain prices affect domestic grain supply and demand balance mainly through the way of trade transmission and substitution effect. Futures price shows no obvious effect on the domestic grain supply and demand balance.Part6 assures of domestic grain security.Then putting forward some valuable suggestions,such as building up the grain circulation and reserve system, improving grain production,perfecting grain support system,improving the grain market information and early warning system,improving the national control of grain market.