Study On Relations Between Energy Consumption And Econmic Growth Of China:Based On System Dynamics

Energy is the material basis for national economic development, with the growing economy, human dependence for energy is increasing. The energy consumption of the system is a complex system, and the economic, demographic, environmental external factors are closely linked, how to grasp the relationship between the change of China’s energy consumption and energy consumption and economic growth in China is among the forefront of an important issue. Therefore, this article using system dynamics approach to the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China was studied and discussed. Research work and contributions of this paper focuses on the following aspects:(1) The definition of China’s "energy consumption- economic growth, " the system. China’s "energy consumption- economic growth," the system is a very complex system, mainly composed of three subsystems: the subsystem of economic growth, energy consumption and environmental subsystem subsystem. One of the most important constituent elements of subsystems including population growth, the country’s GDP as well as the name of social capital investment and utilization, these factors can play a very crucial role in economic growth in the system; energy consumption child system includes elements of coal consumption, gas consumption, oil consumption, electricity(hydropower, wind power, nuclear power) consumption, there are also a feedback relationship between these elements; environmental subsystem, including carbon dioxide emissions, sulfur dioxide emissions, wastewater emissions, pollutant emissions and other factors, it is for these elements, there is a causal relationship between the elements and the feedback element.(2) To build China’s "energy consumption- economic growth," the system dynamics model. Analysis of causality and feedback mechanisms of economic growth subsystem, energy consumption and environmental subsystem elements between subsystems using material flow analysis, and by studying the Chinese "Energy consumption- economic growth," the relationship between, the build up China " Energy consumption- economic growth " system dynamics model, from a qualitative and quantitative perspective of the relationship between China’s energy consumption and economic growth.(3) The scenario analysis of China’s energy consumption- economic growth "system simulation, calculation and analysis of the 2013--2030 years of China’s economic development scenarios, China’s energy consumption structure adjustment in China’s carbon emissions scenarios and these three scenarios scenario Chinese energy consumption and economic growth double the carbon emissions of the cases constraints. China’s energy consumption and put forward policy recommendations in the development of low-carbon economy.After the Chinese economy has maintained steady development scenarios, alone adjust energy consumption structure and economic growth can not be effective in reducing carbon dioxide emissions, but increases the role of technological progress factors: forecasting based on scenario simulation and modeling results, the following conclusions can be drawn can effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and can be realized in China in 2026 to address climate change goals, the final results of the analysis based on the scenario put forward some policy recommendations...