Scenario Analysis On Carbon Emissions And Energy Consumption In China's Cement Industry Based On Logistic Growth Curve

Cement industry is an energy-intensive and high emissions industry. CO2 emissions of cement industry are not only from the burning of coal, but also from the decomposition of carbonate material. So the study on the characteristics of Chinese cement industry's energy consumption and CO2 emissions, and the prediction of their future trends, will promote the work of China's energy saving and low-carbon economy.Based on the cement consumption statistics from 1978 to 2009, logic growth curve model is used to predict cement demand before the saturation point in China. According to the experience of cement product consumption in the developed countries and regions, this paper set three kinds of scenarios for China's cement product demand. Furthermore, according to the stability level of the three kinds of scenarios having set, the cement demand after saturation point was estimated. Finally, three scenarios results of China's cement product demand from 2010-2030 can be obtained. Baseline scenario and low carbon scenario are set for the energy efficiency scenario (energy consumption per unit product). Combined with the three scenarios results of the cement demand, the six scenarios results of energy consumption and CO2 emissions for China's cement industry from 2010 to 2030 can be calculated.Results show that:high-speed cement demand scenario, medium-speed cement demand scenario, low-speed cement demand scenario in China reach saturation point at 2021,2019,2016 year, and the corresponding cement consumption are for the 1688,1518 and 1389 Mt respectively. Three scenarios drop to a stable level within about 7 years. When China's cement demand reaches about 1000 Mt, it tends to be stable. Trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions for China cement industry from 2010to 2030 are similar to that of cement demand. High-speed demand baseline scenario is at the highest on the energy consumption and CO2 emissions, but low-speed demand low carbon scenario is at the least. For the same demand scenario, the baseline scenario is more energy-saving and ejection-decreasing than low-carbon scenario.