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Study On Approaches To Energy-economy System Modeling In China Under The Context Of Urbanization And Climate Change

Posted on:2015-04-18Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J L FanFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330422993424Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Energy issue is a strategic and overall matter which is closely linked with economicand social development; energy related environmental problems become increasinglyprominent. On the one hand, with the rapid economy development especially theaccelerated urbanization process in China, the residential sector is deemed to be key originof the growth of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the future. On the other hand,climate change is likely to affect the demand and supply of energy, making it more complex.In addition, in the face of both tasks of improving household living standards andaddressing climate change in China, it is of importance to seek a scientific and reasonablepolicy of emission reduction. Modeling energy-economy system in both contexts couldprovide quantitive implication for enengy economics and climate policy decisions.Based on previous literatures and in the context of both domestic urbanization andglobal climate change, this dissertation in-depth carries out study of energy-economysystem modeling problems especially on Chinese energy economics related issues. Wefocus on modelling and applications related to four aspects, i.e. energy consumption andcarbon emission in residential sector, climate impact on energy demand, energy supplydisruption associated vulnerability under extreme climatic events, and assessment ofemission reduction policies, extending and improving energy-economy system modellingand approaches in China. In the process of quantitative study, the following innovations areachieved.(1) On the basis of macro statistics and micro survey data, we establish a more robustAWD decomposition method that was used to examine four driving factors of changes incarbon emission intensity of urban and rural household from an end-use perspective.Effects of five end-use activities on carbon intensity are considered, i.e. space cooling andheating, cooking and hot water, lighting, appliances and private transportation. This workmakes up for the deficiency of bottom-up modelling approach on Chinese energy andeconomic complex system. The results show that in the short term it is unlikely to achieveemission reduction through adjusting activity mode, and emission rate effect is limited, sothe path lies to changing the end-use structure and end-use energy intensity. In order torealize emission reduction through these paths, both aspects require guidance on household behaviors such as reducing electricity waste and controlling too much higher comfortstandards.(2) By constructing an absolute Divisia index decomposition model to measureurbanization effect of residential direct energy consumption, we analyze and compare thecontributions of urbanization in China to changes of residential direct energy consumptionat national level through time series of1996-2011, and at regional level through period of2000-2011, both including decompositing objects of total energy and various individualenergy types. The results reflect that increase of urbanization rate accumulatively contribute16percent of corresponding increase of residential energy consumption. For each1percentage point increase of urbanization rate, the derived residential energy consumptionincrease by about1.15million tons of coal equivalent(tce), while coal consumptiondecrease by0.28million tce. The largest positive urbanization effects are found on theconsumption of oil sum and natural gas. Increase of urbanization rate has the largest effectson residential energy consumption in central area, namely, accumulative amount of6.65million tce. From the marginal contribution, however, urbanization effect is the largest forwestern area’s total residential energy consumption. As for individual energy, it contributesgreatest to oil consumption but fewest to electricity consumption in eastern area.(3) This dissertation then innovatively extends the urban and rural household sectors inthe2007input-output table into three categories. Further by modeling input-output modelinvolving the additional agent of migrant workers, direct and indirect energy consumptionand corresponding carbon emissions caused by three categories of households respectivelyis calculated, environmental impacts of citizenization of migrant workers are also detected.According to computing results, total energy consumption and CO2emission caused byconsumption of migrant workers take8.1%of national level, of which food processing andelectricity industry contribute by36.3%as the first place. Induced CO2emission per capitalof migrant workers is less than1/3of that of urban households. Citizenization of migrantworkers associated consumption is projected to increase energy consumption of128milliontce and272million ton CO2emissions.(4) In this dissertation, four climatic factors are introduced into series of multivariableregression models to capture how climate factor and non-climate factor affect monthly electricity consumption of primary industry, secondary industrial, tertiary industry andhousehold sector respectively. Based on the regression results, we further exploresensitivity curves for four sectors to capture monthly changes of electricity consumptioncompared with that in particular year under different temperature rise conditions. Theresults show that the tertiary industry and household sector is more sensitive to heat or coldpressure than other two sectors. With exception of primary industry, sectoral electricityconsumption response twice to cold pressure than corresponding hot pressure. Sensitivitycurves tell us under temperature rise conditions, the saved electricity from Nov. to Mar. dueto less heating requirement is not enough to offset the increase of electricity consumptionthrough Apr. to Oct., which threats the security of electricity supply. Although secondaryindustry has the least climate sensitivity in terms of relative amount, it still should be acaution due to the large absolute amount. On the contrary, it has few effects on electricitysecurity of primary industry even if it is tended to increase in each month of the whole year,also due to its limited absolute amount.(5) Extreme climatic events and electricity disruption are included intoenergy-economy system modelling study. To do that, two CGE (computable generalequilibrium) models are constructed, by using which three stage scenarios are simulated forChina and Japan respectively. The results reveal that China and Japan have unequalsocio-economic vulnerabilities to extreme events. Negative impact of the same degree ofpower outages is bigger on China’s socio economic system than on that of Japan. And thisdifference is more obvious in the very short-run scenario. The decline of China’s GDP, totaloutput and employment levels is2-3times higher than that of Japan. Structural factors isthe main reason of vulnerability differences between China and Japan, including thedifferences of expenditure structure, factor input structure for production of liferequirement sectors, material and energy dependence for production of industrial sectors,and usage structure of services outputs. These findings have significances for fairnessissues on climate change adaptation.(6) By applying a CEEPA (China Energy&Environmental Policy Analysis system)model developed by Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, thisdissertation simulates the impacts of the cancellation of export rebates on CO2emissions and socio-economic consequences in different scenarios so as to figure out whether it works.This dissertation covers three export rebate scenarios and makes comparisons between theimpacts of export rebates on emission reduction effects and that of carbon tax policies. Theconclusions are:1) the current policy which cancels export rebates for key sectors can cutemissions at huge economic cost, yet it is unsustainable;2) the policy which cancels exportrebates for key sectors and meanwhile subsidizes sectoral outputs yields double dividendsin the short term, thus can facilitate emission reduction yet the boost is limited;3) thepolicy which cancels export rebates and boosts domestic demand helps improvingresidents’ welfare in the short term while it may inflict pronounced social and economicimpacts in the long run. So policy of this kind should be adopted with great caution;4)export rebates generate far more economic costs than carbon tax policies in the long term,and don’t contribute to optimizing the energy mix as well as the latter. In summary,canceling export rebates should not be regarded as a priority to encourage emissionreduction.
Keywords/Search Tags:Energy Economics, CO2Emission, Climate Change, Socio-economicVulnerability, Divisia Decomposition, Computable General Equilibrium
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