Spatio - Temporal Evolution Of Regional Economic Transformation And Policy Simulation

Based on change of the world economic structure and acceleration of globalization in the post-crisis era, the Economic Transition has become the objective trend of world economies, and the inevitable choice of world economic sustainable and healthy development. In this context, China has entered a new development stage, which the economy overall showed "New Normal" characteristics, China faces both opportunities and challenges. Currently, Regional economy is experiencing the key crucial stage in the transformation, which will play an important role in the overall transformation and development in the whole country. Therefore, analysis on the operating mechanism of Regional Economic Transition and its optimizing path has become cutting-edge topics with both great theoretic and practical significance. Regional Economic Transition is a long and tortuous space-time evolution process, and also a complex gigantic system, invloving industry, demographic, social, environmental, institutional and other aspects of content. Regional Economic Transition is also the solution of regional problems, and the key to promote regional sustainable development. This paper analyzes the connotation of Regional Economic Transformation, constructs the theoretical framework of the Regional Economic Transformation, and takes the Yangtze River Delta region as the empirical study object, to analyze the evolution of Yangtze River Delta Region, the Measurement Evaluation and propose regulatory pathways optimized and measures.Based on the theory of economic transition, this paper attempts to establish the theoretical framework of Regional Economic Transition. Firstly, based on regional economic growth theory and the structural adjustment and coordination theory, this paper identifies the concepts and internal logic among the area, transformation, economic restructuring, and transformation of the economic development. Then the paper proposes the concept of regional Regional Economic Transition as follows: Regional Economic Transition is a long-term dynamic development process of fundamental change, which is based on a certain geographical space, locational conditions, and resources endowment. It is designed to implement regional coordinated development, accelerate the transformation of the economic development, and promote the evolution of regional economic development, the structure form,operating mode & the idea of a fundamental shift strategy. Regional Economic Transition depends on the objective demand of the regional development, and dynamic function of the related behavior subjects. It emphasizes more wilder hinterland areas and more closer space-time connection, with the characteristics of urgency. Periodicity, complexity, diversity, and coordination. Secondly, this paper constructs theoretical analytical framework of the Regional Economic Transition, including the driving factor, evolutionary character & development mode. Also this paper forms the mechanisms of Space-time evolution and the Policy influence for the Regional Economic Transition. Finally, this paper presented three theoretical assumptions:in time dimension, regional economic transition is a process, involving regional economic structure adjustment and optimization; in space dimension, it is a state, involving different levels of agglomeration in different places; in production elements dimension, it is a result, involving the flow and allocation of the capital, labor, and technique in ares.Based on the theoretical analytical framework, this paper investigates the evolution characteristics and driving factors of the of the Regional Economic Transition in Yangtze River Delta Region, using Time series analysis, principal component analysis, clustering methodology, Spatial differentiation method, and Policy Simulation analysis. Firstly, based on the current situation in Yangtze River Delta Region, this paper analyzes its economic structural adjustment in industry, population, space and cooperation aspects, and then points out the problems. The conclusion is,as a whole,the economic structural adjustment in Yangtze River Delta Region is good, but there are also many outstanding issues:the independent innovation capability needs to enhance, the working-age population’s quantity & quality needs to improve, regional spatial structure needs to be further optimized, and the cooperation mechanisms needs to be more efficient. Secondly,this paper constructs the evaluation system of the Regional Economic Transition, and measures the the transformation effect in multi-levels and multi-dimensions. In conclusion, in Yangtze River Delta Region, the level of economic transformation is rising steadily, the transition gap among cities is narrowing, and the core cities are still playing leading roles in the region. Meanwhile, in Yangtze River Delta Region, the workforce’s quantity & quality needs to be improved and the spatial agglomeration is growing in cities with similar economic transformation levels. The cities wih higher level of agglomeration are ranging from Shanghai and its three surrounding cities,to Changzhou, Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Zhoushan and other places. The cities wih lower level of agglomeration are distributed in the North of Jiangsu Province and Southwest of Zhejiang Province. Finally, based on the policy influence mechanism,this paper constructs the Policy Simulation, analyses the transformation driven factors in Yangtze River Delta Region, discusses their contributions and proposes adjustment schemes. In conlusion, the capital is sluggish as one of the economic growth drivers, and the traditional economy model is changing gruadually. Regional workforce growth is slowing down, and the population bonus is contributing less to the economic growth. Science and education is becoming the main power of future developmentm, improving the quality and quality of labor force is playing a more positive role to the the regional economic growth. Industrial structure adjustment, energy conservation and environmental protection should be paid attention. At last, this paper makes suggestions in three aspects:to promote the transformation driven factors, to optimize the economical structure, and to speed up the change in the mode of economic development.